College of Science & Engineering and Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland, Australia; Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 15;904:166817. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166817. Epub 2023 Sep 4.
Sugarcane is a vital commodity crop often grown in (sub)tropical regions which have been experiencing a recent deterioration in air quality. Unlike for other commodity crops, the risk of air pollution, specifically ozone (O), to this C crop has not yet been quantified. Yet, recent work has highlighted both the potential risks of O to C bioenergy crops, and the emergence of O exposure across the tropics as a vital factor determining global food security. Given the large extent, and planned expansion of sugarcane production in places like Brazil to meet global demand for biofuels, there is a pressing need to characterize the risk of O to the industry. In this study, we sought to a) derive sugarcane O dose-response functions across a range of realistic O exposure and b) model the implications of this across a globally important production area. We found a significant impact of O on biomass allocation (especially to leaves) and production across a range of sugarcane genotypes, including two commercially relevant varieties (e.g. CTC4, Q240). Using these data, we calculated dose-response functions for sugarcane and combined them with hourly O exposure across south-central Brazil derived from the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) to simulate the current regional impact of O on sugarcane production using a dynamic global vegetation model (JULES vn 5.6). We found that between 5.6 % and 18.3 % of total crop productivity is likely lost across the region due to the direct impacts of current O exposure. However, impacts depended critically on the substantial differences in O susceptibility observed among sugarcane genotypes and how these were implemented in the model. Our work highlights not only the urgent need to fully elucidate the impacts of O in this important bioenergetic crop, but the potential implications air quality may have upon tropical food production more generally.
甘蔗是一种重要的商品作物，通常生长在空气质量最近恶化的（亚热带）热带地区。与其他商品作物不同，这种 C 作物面临空气污染的风险，特别是臭氧（O），尚未量化。然而，最近的工作不仅强调了 O 对 C 生物能源作物的潜在风险，而且还强调了 O 在热带地区的出现是决定全球粮食安全的一个重要因素。鉴于巴西等地甘蔗生产的广泛程度和计划的扩张，以满足全球对生物燃料的需求，因此迫切需要描述 O 对该行业的风险。在这项研究中，我们试图：a）得出一系列现实 O 暴露范围内的甘蔗 O 剂量-反应函数；b）在全球重要的生产地区模拟其影响。我们发现 O 对生物量分配（特别是叶片）和多种甘蔗基因型的生产有显著影响，包括两种商业上相关的品种（例如 CTC4、Q240）。使用这些数据，我们为甘蔗计算了剂量-反应函数，并将其与从英国地球系统模型（UKESM1）中得出的南中部巴西的每小时 O 暴露相结合，使用动态全球植被模型（JULES vn 5.6）模拟 O 对当前甘蔗生产的区域影响。我们发现，由于当前 O 暴露的直接影响，该地区的总作物生产力可能损失 5.6%至 18.3%。然而，影响取决于在甘蔗基因型中观察到的 O 敏感性的巨大差异，以及这些差异如何在模型中实施。我们的工作不仅突出了充分阐明这种重要生物能源作物中 O 影响的紧迫性，而且还突出了空气质量可能对热带粮食生产产生的潜在影响。
