College of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Sep 8;18(9):e0289321. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0289321. eCollection 2023.
The post-COVID-19 era presents a looming threat of global debt, elevating concerns regarding sovereign credit ratings worldwide. This study develops a new index system, divides the rating variables into long- and short-term factors, performs rating fitting and prediction, and investigates the fairness of China and relevant countries. Our findings reveal that sovereign credit ratings have a deterrent effect on the global financial market due to the ceiling effect and quasi-public goods characteristics. A high and stable credit rating demands long-term enhancements in economic fundamentals, budget balances, external surpluses, and overall solvency. Concurrently, effective short-term debt management strategies, including reduction, repayment, and swaps, are essential. Moreover, we introduce the concept of a "rating gap" to assess rating fairness, revealing both undervaluation and overvaluation among countries. Notably, China's sovereign rating was underestimated between 2009 and 2011 and overestimated between 2013 and 2016. These findings underscore the criticality of government vigilance in monitoring sovereign debt and credit ratings to navigate potential post-COVID-19 sovereign debt crises.
后新冠疫情时代，全球债务问题迫在眉睫，全球各国对主权信用评级的担忧不断加剧。本研究构建了一个新的主权信用评级指标体系，将评级变量划分为长期和短期因素，进行了评级拟合与预测，并对中国及相关国家的主权信用评级公平性进行了分析。研究发现，主权信用评级对全球金融市场具有一定的风险警示作用，主要是因为其存在“天花板效应”和“准公共物品”特征。评级高低取决于一国长期经济基本面、财政预算平衡状况、外部盈余和整体偿债能力等，评级维持稳定需要不断增强经济基本面。同时，也需要采取有效的短期债务管理策略，如债务展期、提前偿还和债务置换等。此外，本研究引入“评级缺口”的概念来衡量主权信用评级的公平性，发现各国存在评级低估和高估现象。尤其是中国在 2009-2011 年期间被低估，2013-2016 年期间被高估。这些发现凸显了政府在监测主权债务和信用评级方面保持警惕的重要性，以应对后新冠疫情时代主权债务危机的潜在风险。
