Mumtaz Faisal, Li Jing, Liu Qinhuo, Arshad Arfan, Dong Yadong, Liu Chang, Zhao Jing, Bashir Barjeece, Gu Chenpeng, Wang Xiaohan, Zhang Hu
State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Sciences, Aerospace Information Research Institute Chinese Academy of Science (AIRCAS), Beijing 100094, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74075, USA.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Dec 20;905:166940. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166940. Epub 2023 Sep 9.
We presented a framework to evaluate the land use transformations over the Eurasian Steppe (EUS) driven by human activities from 2000 to 2020. Framework involves three main components: (1) evaluate the spatial-temporal dynamics of land use transitions by utilizing the land change modeler (LCM) and remote sensing data; (2) quantifying the individual contributions of climate change and human activities using improved residual trend analysis (IRTA) and pixel-based partial correlation coefficient (PCC); and (3) quantifying the contributions of land use transitions to Leaf Area Index Intensity (LAII) by using the linear regression. Research findings indicate an increase in cropland (+1.17 % = 104,217 km) over EUS, while a - 0.80 % reduction over Uzbekistan and - 0.16 % over Tajikistan. From 2000 to 2020 a slight increase in grassland was observed over the EUS region by 0.05 %. The detailed findings confirm an increase (0.24 % = 21,248.62 km) of grassland over the 1st half (2000-2010) and a decrease (-0.19 % = -16,490.50 km) in the 2nd period (2011-2020), with a notable decline over Kazakhstan (-0.54 % = 13,690 km), Tajikistan (-0.18 % = 1483 km), and Volgograd (-0.79 % = 4346 km). Area of surface water bodies has declined with an alarming rate over Kazakhstan (-0.40 % = 10,261 km) and Uzbekistan (-2.22 % = 8943 km). Additionally, dominant contributions of human activities to induced LULC transitions were observed over the Chinese region, Mongolia, Uzbekistan, and Volgograd regions, with approximately 87 %, 83 %, 92 %, and 47 %, respectively, causing effective transitions to 12,997 km of cropland, 24,645 km of grassland, 16,763 km of sparse vegetation in China, and 12,731.2 km to grassland and 15,356.1 km to sparse vegetation in Mongolia. Kazakhstan had mixed climate-human impact with human-driven transitions of 48,568 km of bare land to sparse vegetation, 27,741 km to grassland, and 49,789 km to cropland on the eastern sides. Southern regions near Uzbekistan had climatic dominancy, and 8472 km of water bodies turned into bare soil. LAII shows an increasing trend rate of 0.63 year, particularly over human-dominant regions. This study can guide knowledge of oscillations and reduce adverse impacts on ecosystems and their supply services.
我们提出了一个框架，用于评估2000年至2020年人类活动驱动下欧亚草原（EUS）的土地利用变化。该框架包括三个主要部分：（1）利用土地变化建模器（LCM）和遥感数据评估土地利用转型的时空动态；（2）使用改进的残差趋势分析（IRTA）和基于像元的偏相关系数（PCC）量化气候变化和人类活动的各自贡献；（3）通过线性回归量化土地利用转型对叶面积指数强度（LAII）的贡献。研究结果表明，欧亚草原的耕地面积增加了1.17%（即104,217平方千米），而乌兹别克斯坦减少了0.80%，塔吉克斯坦减少了0.16%。2000年至2020年，欧亚草原地区的草地略有增加，增幅为0.05%。详细结果证实，上半年（2000 - 2010年）草地增加了0.24%（即21,248.62平方千米），而在第二个时期（2011 - 2020年）减少了0.19%（即 - 16,490.50平方千米），哈萨克斯坦（ - 0.54% = 13,690平方千米）、塔吉克斯坦（ - 0.18% = 1483平方千米）和伏尔加格勒（ - 0.79% = 4346平方千米）的降幅尤为显著。哈萨克斯坦（ - 0.40% = 10,261平方千米）和乌兹别克斯坦（ - 2.22% = 8943平方千米）的地表水体面积以惊人的速度下降。此外，在中国地区、蒙古、乌兹别克斯坦和伏尔加格勒地区，观察到人类活动对诱导土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LULC）转型的主要贡献，分别约为87%、83%、92%和47%，导致中国12,997平方千米的耕地、24,645平方千米的草地、16,763平方千米的稀疏植被以及蒙古12,731.2平方千米的草地和15,356.1平方千米的稀疏植被发生有效转型。哈萨克斯坦的气候 - 人类影响较为复杂，人类驱动东部48,568平方千米的裸地转变为稀疏植被、27,741平方千米转变为草地以及49,789平方千米转变为耕地。乌兹别克斯坦附近的南部地区以气候主导，8472平方千米的水体转变为裸土。LAII显示出每年0.63的增长趋势率，特别是在人类主导的地区。这项研究可以指导对振荡的认识，并减少对生态系统及其供应服务的不利影响。
