School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China.
School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2023 Jun;34(6):1467-1473. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202306.008.
Crested ibis () is one of the endangered species in the International Union for Conservation of Nature. It is of great significance to pay attention to the changes of its suitable habitat in the context of climate change. Based on the geographical distribution data of crested ibis, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the suitable habitat of crested ibis under current scenario and future climate change. The results showed that the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was high, with an AUC value of 0.989. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, and the mean annual rainfall were the dominant environmental factors affecting the habitat of crested ibis. Under current climate scenario, the area of moderately and highly suitable area of Chinese crested ibis was 10.65×10 km, mainly distributed in Shaanxi, Sichuan, Hubei, Henan, and Gansu. In the future, the suitable habitat area of crested ibis would increase significantly under climate change, mainly distributed in Anhui, Chongqing, Guizhou, Jiangsu, Hunan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Jiangxi, Taiwan, Yunnan, Liaoning, and Fujian. In the SSP126 scenario from 2041 to 2060, the suitable habitat area of crested ibis would reach the maximum, being 139.53×10 km higher than that of the current climate scenario, accounting for 19.6% of the land area. This study could provide a basis for policy making on the conservation of crested ibis under global climate change.
朱鹮（）是国际自然保护联盟濒危物种之一。关注气候变化背景下其适宜栖息地的变化具有重要意义。本研究基于朱鹮的地理分布数据，利用 MaxEnt 模型预测了当前情景和未来气候变化下朱鹮的适宜栖息地。结果表明，MaxEnt 模型的预测精度较高，AUC 值为 0.989。最冷月最低温度、最冷月平均温度和年平均降雨量是影响朱鹮栖息地的主要环境因素。在当前气候情景下，中国朱鹮中适宜和高适宜区的面积为 10.65×10^4km^2，主要分布在陕西、四川、湖北、河南和甘肃。未来，气候变化将使朱鹮的适宜栖息地面积显著增加，主要分布在安徽、重庆、贵州、江苏、湖南、山东、陕西、江西、台湾、云南、辽宁和福建。在 2041 年至 2060 年的 SSP126 情景下，朱鹮的适宜栖息地面积将达到最大值，比当前气候情景下增加 139.53×10^4km^2，占土地面积的 19.6%。本研究可为全球气候变化下朱鹮保护的政策制定提供依据。
