Ganzi Meteorological Bureau, Kangding 626000, Sichuan, China.
Dazhou Meteorological Bureau, Dazhou 635000, Sichuan, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2023 Jun;34(6):1541-1546. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202306.027.
The development of precise climate risk zoning for chilling injury of can provide scientific basis for agricultural cultivation planning, dynamic assessment of chilling injury, and disaster prevention strategies. Based on meteorological data from 17 counties (cities) that located below the altitude of 3000 m in the Western Sichuan Plateau from 2011 to 2020, we analyzed the critical meteorological conditions for disasters in typical years. With the average yearly cold accumulation and cold injury frequency during the first day when the temperature remained stable between 5 ℃ and 10 ℃ during mushroom emergence as zoning indicators, we established a geographical spatial distribution model of the cold injury index, and then divided the risk level of a cold injury in the Western Sichuan Plateau, evaluated the risk of cold injury. The results showed that the temperature index for chilling injury risk of in the study area was the daily minimum temperature ≤2.0 ℃. The daily average temperature <6.0 ℃ would cause slow growth or the cessation of growth, which was set as a warning indicator for chilling injury risk. Along the Dadu River and Minjiang River basins, the frequency of chilling injury on increased from south to north. Wenchuan, Maoxian, and Lixian had the fewest overall chilling injuries during the study period, whereas Jiulong, Yajiang, and Batang had the most. The duration for cold injury was mainly 1-3 d, followed by 4-5 d, and rarely for >5 d. The frequency of chilling injury lasting for more than 5 d in Xiangcheng, Batang, Jiulong, Yajiang, and Xiaojin was more than that lasting for 4-5 d. The annual average days of chilling injury of was 3.0-27.4 d, the daily average minimum temperature was -0.84-1.36 ℃, the extreme lowest temperature was -5.8-0.1 ℃, and the average accumulated cold was 0.16-9.64 ℃·d during the period of chilling injury. With the increases of elevation and latitude, the average days of chilling injury and the average accumulated cold increased. The largest duration of chilling injury was 3-20 d, the maximum accumulated cold was 0.44-13.34 ℃·d. The risk of chilling injury to increased from south to north and from low elevation to high elevation. The suitable planting areas were distributed in strips and branches along the direction of mountains and rivers, mainly in the flat areas of low mountains and valleys below the altitude of 2200 m, including Kangding, Luding, Danba, Wenchuan, Lixian, Maoxian, Jiuzhaigou, and Songpan.
精确的气候风险区划对于冷害的研究，可以为农业种植规划、冷害的动态评估和防灾策略提供科学依据。本研究基于 2011-2020 年川西高原海拔 3000m 以下的 17 个县（市）的气象数据，分析了典型年份中冷害发生的临界气象条件。以出菇期日平均气温稳定在 5-10℃期间的年平均冷积累量和冷害频率作为区划指标，建立了冷害指数的地理空间分布模型，进而划分了川西高原冷害风险等级，评估了冷害风险。结果表明，研究区 发生冷害的温度指标为日最低气温≤2.0℃。日平均气温<6.0℃会导致生长缓慢或停止，这被设定为冷害风险的预警指标。沿大渡河和岷江流域，冷害发生频率自南向北增加。汶川、茂县和理县在整个研究期间冷害总发生次数最少，而九龙、雅江和巴塘发生次数最多。冷害持续时间主要为 1-3d，其次是 4-5d，很少超过 5d。在乡城、巴塘、九龙、雅江和小金，持续时间超过 5d 的冷害频率高于持续时间 4-5d 的冷害频率。的冷害天数为 3.0-27.4d，日平均最低气温为-0.84-1.36℃，极端最低气温为-5.8-0.1℃，冷害期平均冷积累量为 0.16-9.64℃·d。随着海拔和纬度的升高，冷害天数和冷积累量增加。冷害持续时间最长为 3-20d，最大冷积累量为 0.44-13.34℃·d。冷害风险自南向北、从低海拔向高海拔增加。适宜种植区呈条带状和树枝状分布，主要沿山河方向分布在海拔 2200m 以下的低山和平坝区，包括康定、泸定、丹巴、汶川、理县、茂县、九寨沟和松潘。
