Chen Ning, Xin Cun-Lin, Tang Dao-Bin, Zhang Liang, Xin Shun-Jie
College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2023 Aug 8;44(8):4655-4665. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202210083.
Land use/cover change (LUCC) is the main factor leading to the change in carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems. Studying the process of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in the future will help to formulate scientific land use policies and increase regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage. The GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of land use and carbon storage in northwest China from 2000 to 2020 through multi-source data and to predict the land use and carbon storage in northwest China in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development (ND), economic development (ED), ecological protection (EP), and comprehensive development (CD). The results showed that:①from 2000 to 2020, the area of grassland decreased by 1680.99×10 hm, and the area of cultivated land, forest land, water area, wetland, construction land, and unused land increased by 201.19×10, 208.47×10, 91.54×10, 51.30×10, 157.40×10, and 971.09×10 hm, respectively. ②From 2000 to 2020, soil and underground carbon storage decreased, dead organic matter and aboveground carbon storage increased, and total carbon storage decreased by 677.97×10 t. Grassland degradation was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage. ③Compared to that in 2020, the total carbon storage in the ND scenario was reduced by 63.12×10 t, and the total carbon storage in the ED, EP, and CD scenarios increased by 759.19×10, 804.57×10, and 817.89×10 t, respectively; the CD scenario was the optimal development model. These results can provide a reference for regional land use planning and the increase of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.
土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）是导致陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要因素。研究未来不同情景下土地利用和碳储量变化过程，将有助于制定科学的土地利用政策，增加区域陆地生态系统碳储量。构建了GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST模型，通过多源数据分析2000—2020年中国西北地区土地利用和碳储量变化特征，并预测自然发展（ND）、经济发展（ED）、生态保护（EP）和综合发展（CD）情景下2030年中国西北地区的土地利用和碳储量。结果表明：①2000—2020年，草地面积减少了1680.99×10 hm，耕地、林地、水域、湿地、建设用地和未利用地面积分别增加了201.19×10、208.47×10、91.54×10、51.30×10、157.40×10和971.09×10 hm。②2000—2020年，土壤和地下碳储量减少，死有机物质和地上碳储量增加，总碳储量减少了677.97×10 t。草地退化是碳储量减少的主要原因。③与2020年相比，ND情景下总碳储量减少了63.12×10 t，ED、EP和CD情景下总碳储量分别增加了759.19×10、804.57×10和817.89×10 t；CD情景是最优发展模式。这些结果可为区域土地利用规划和增加陆地生态系统碳储量提供参考。
