Long-term follow-up of cervical cancer incidence after normal cytological findings.

An increase in cervical cancer incidence in Sweden from 2014 to 2015 has been attributed to an increase in false-negative cytological findings before cancer diagnoses. Years later, we performed a long-term follow-up to investigate whether the problem persisted. At each calendar year from 2016 to 2020, we identified women with prior normal cervical screening results through linkage to the Swedish National Cervical Screening Registry. We reported their incidence rates (IRs) of invasive cervical cancer in consecutive years and compared the IRs over time. For the years 2016 to 2020, there was no overall change in cervical cancer incidence after two normal cytology in the last two screening intervals. However, there was a further 62% increase among women 50 to 60 years of age with normal cytology in the past two screening intervals. The incidence rate of cervical cancer was high among nonscreened women and low among HPV-screened women with negative results, with no trends over time. Our results imply that the previously reported decrease in sensitivity of cervical cytology is persisting. Although primary cytology screening is no longer used, cytology is used in triaging among HPV-positive women. Our findings suggest that improved triaging is needed, for example, improved quality assurance and/or use of alternative triage tests.