Department of Mathematics, Pan African university for Basic Science, Technology and Invocation (PAUSTI) /JKUAT, Nairobi, Kenya.
Department of Applied Mathematics, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia.
J Biol Dyn. 2023 Dec;17(1):2248178. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2023.2248178.
This paper aims to apply an optimal control theory for the autonomous model of the leptospirosis epidemic to examine the effect of four time-dependent control measures on the model dynamics with cost-effectiveness. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was used to derive the optimality system associated with the optimal control problem. Numerical simulations of the optimality system were performed for different control strategies and the results were presented graphically with and without controls. The optimality system was simulated using the Forward-Backward Sweep method in the Matlab programme. The numerical results revealed that the combination of all optimal control measures is the most effective strategy for minimizing the spread and impact of disease in the community. Furthermore, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed to determine the most cost-effective strategy using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio approach and we observed that the rodenticide control-only strategy is most effective to combat the spread of disease when available resources are limited.
本文旨在应用最优控制理论对钩端螺旋体病的自治模型进行研究,以考察四种时变控制措施对具有成本效益的模型动力学的影响。庞特里亚金极大值原理被用来推导与最优控制问题相关的最优系统。针对不同的控制策略,对最优系统进行了数值模拟,并在有和没有控制的情况下以图形方式展示了结果。最优系统的模拟使用了 Matlab 程序中的前向-后向扫描方法。数值结果表明,所有最优控制措施的组合是最小化疾病在社区中传播和影响的最有效策略。此外,还进行了成本效益分析,以增量成本效益比方法确定最具成本效益的策略,我们观察到,当可用资源有限时,仅使用灭鼠剂控制策略是最有效地控制疾病传播的策略。