Andersen Jeremy C, Elkinton Joseph S
Department of Environmental Conservation University of Massachusetts Amherst Amherst Massachusetts USA.
Ecol Evol. 2023 Sep 12;13(9):e10494. doi: 10.1002/ece3.10494. eCollection 2023 Sep.
Climate suitability analyses based on ecological niche modeling provide a powerful tool for biological control practitioners to assess the likelihood of establishment of different candidate agents prior to their introduction in the field. These same analyses could also be performed to understand why some agents establish more easily than others. The release of three strains of (Shinji) (Hemiptera: Pysllidae), each from a different source locality in Japan, for the biological control of invasive knotweed species, spp. Houtt. (Caryophyllales: Polygonaceae), provides an important opportunity to compare the utility of climate suitability analyses for identifying potential climate-based limitations for successful biological control introductions. Here, we predict climate suitability envelopes for three target species of knotweed in Europe and two target species of knotweed in North America and compare these suitability estimates for each of these species to the source localities of each strain. We find that source locality of one strain, the Kyushu strain, has little-to-no suitability compared to other locations in Japan based on knotweed records from Europe, supporting an earlier study based on North American Japanese knotweed records. The source locality of a second strain, the Murakami strain, was predicted to have medium-to-high suitability based on records of knotweeds from North America. In contrast, European records of × Chrtek & Chrtková and (F. Schmidt) Nakai predicted no suitability for this locality compared to other locations in Japan, while European records for Houtt. predicted low suitability. The source locality of the final strain, the Hokkaido strain, was predicted as having medium-to-high suitability based on knotweed records of all examined species from both North America and Europe.
基于生态位建模的气候适宜性分析为生物防治从业者提供了一个强大的工具，用于在将不同候选生物防治剂引入田间之前评估其定殖的可能性。同样可以进行这些分析，以了解为什么有些生物防治剂比其他生物防治剂更容易定殖。释放来自日本不同源地的三种斑衣蜡蝉（半翅目：蜡蝉科）菌株，用于对入侵性虎杖属植物（石竹目：蓼科）进行生物防治，这为比较气候适宜性分析在确定基于气候的成功生物防治引入潜在限制方面的效用提供了一个重要机会。在这里，我们预测了欧洲三种虎杖目标物种和北美两种虎杖目标物种的气候适宜性范围，并将这些物种各自的适宜性估计值与每种斑衣蜡蝉菌株的源地进行比较。基于欧洲的虎杖记录，我们发现其中一种菌株——九州菌株的源地与日本的其他地区相比，适宜性很低或几乎没有适宜性，这支持了一项基于北美日本虎杖记录的早期研究。根据北美虎杖记录，预测第二种菌株——村上菌株的源地具有中到高适宜性。相比之下，根据欧洲对多花虎杖和虎杖的记录，与日本的其他地区相比，预测该地区对这两种植物没有适宜性，而欧洲对酸模叶蓼的记录预测其适宜性较低。基于来自北美和欧洲的所有被研究物种的虎杖记录，预测最后一种菌株——北海道菌株的源地具有中到高适宜性。
