School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
Environ Sci Technol. 2023 Sep 26;57(38):14299-14309. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.3c04909. Epub 2023 Sep 14.
Vehicle emissions in China have been decoupled from rapid motorization owing to comprehensive control strategies. China's increasingly ambitious goals for better air quality are calling for deep emission mitigation, posing a need to develop an up-to-date emission inventory that can reflect the fast-developing policies on vehicle emission control. Herein, large-sample vehicle emission measurements were collected to update the vehicle emission inventory. For instance, ambient temperature correction modules were developed to depict the remarkable regional and seasonal emission variations, showing that the monthly emission disparities for total hydrocarbon (THC) and nitrogen oxide (NO) in January and July could be up to 1.7 times in northern China. Thus, the emission ratios of THC and NO can vary dramatically among various seasons and provinces, which have not been considered well by previous simulations regarding the nonlinear atmospheric chemistry of ozone (O) and fine particulate matter (PM) formation. The new emission results indicate that vehicular carbon monoxide (CO), THC, and PM emissions decreased by 69, 51, and 61%, respectively, during 2010-2019. However, the controls of NO and ammonia (NH) emissions were not as efficient as other pollutants. Under the most likely future scenario (PC [1]), CO, THC, NO, PM and NH emissions were anticipated to reduce by 35, 36, 35, 45, and 4%, respectively, from 2019 to 2025. These reductions will be expedited with expected decreases of 56, 58, 74, 53, and 51% from 2025 to 2035, which are substantially promoted by the massive deployment of new energy vehicles and more stringent emission standards. The updated vehicle emission inventory can serve as an important tool to develop season- and location-specific mitigation strategies of vehicular emission precursors to alleviate haze and O problems.
由于综合控制策略，中国的车辆排放已经与快速机动化脱钩。中国对改善空气质量的目标越来越高，这就要求进行深度减排，因此需要开发一个最新的排放清单，以反映车辆排放控制方面不断发展的政策。在此，我们收集了大量的车辆排放测量数据来更新车辆排放清单。例如，开发了环境温度校正模块来描述显著的区域和季节性排放变化，表明在中国北方，总碳氢化合物 (THC) 和氮氧化物 (NO) 的月排放量在 1 月和 7 月可能相差 1.7 倍。因此，THC 和 NO 的排放比在不同季节和省份之间可能会有很大差异，而之前的模拟在考虑臭氧 (O) 和细颗粒物 (PM) 形成的非线性大气化学方面并没有很好地考虑到这一点。新的排放结果表明，2010-2019 年期间，车辆一氧化碳 (CO)、THC 和 PM 排放量分别减少了 69%、51%和 61%。然而，NO 和氨 (NH) 排放的控制效率不如其他污染物。在最有可能的未来情景 (PC [1]) 下，预计到 2025 年，CO、THC、NO、PM 和 NH 排放量将分别减少 35%、36%、35%、45%和 4%，到 2035 年，预计将分别减少 56%、58%、74%、53%和 51%，这主要是由于新能源汽车的大规模部署和更严格的排放标准。更新后的车辆排放清单可作为制定针对车辆排放前体物的季节性和地点特定缓解策略的重要工具，以缓解雾霾和 O 问题。
