Zhao Pengjun, Li Zhaoxiang, He Zhangyuan, Chen Yilin, Xiao Zuopeng
College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China.
School of Urban Planning and Design, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Mar 15;16(1):2563. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-57861-z.
Port cities, as crucial nodes in global supply chains, face challenges from both intense traffic emissions and vulnerability to climate-related extremes due to pollution density. Effective and near-term mitigation strategies for greener road freight are imperative to reverse the increasing trend of emissions. This study utilizes a high-resolution emission inventory from 1.2 billion global positioning system trajectories of heavy-duty trucks in Shenzhen, a global port city, to evaluate the combined effects of road network development and fleet electrification on emissions from 2016 to 2035, providing a basis for policy interventions applicable to various urban contexts. Our findings reveal that an integrated strategy decreases road freight emissions, cutting peak carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions by 34% and 43%, respectively, compared to electrification-only scenarios. While fleet electrification supported by net-zero emission grids is necessary, it is insufficient without addressing congestion and enhancing connectivity through expanded road networks. Spatial projections also assist targeted policymaking by showing how emission distributions shift with regional road network expansion.
作为全球供应链中的关键节点，港口城市面临着交通排放密集以及因污染密度而导致易受气候相关极端事件影响的挑战。制定有效且近期可行的绿色公路货运减排策略对于扭转排放增加的趋势至关重要。本研究利用来自全球港口城市深圳的12亿条重型卡车全球定位系统轨迹生成的高分辨率排放清单，评估2016年至2035年道路网络发展和车队电气化对排放的综合影响，为适用于各种城市环境的政策干预提供依据。我们的研究结果表明，与仅采用电气化的情景相比，综合策略可降低道路货运排放，分别将二氧化碳和氮氧化物的峰值排放量削减34%和43%。虽然由净零排放电网支持的车队电气化是必要的，但如果不解决拥堵问题并通过扩大道路网络增强连通性，这是不够的。空间预测还通过展示排放分布如何随区域道路网络扩展而变化，协助进行有针对性的政策制定。
