Faculty of Life Sciences and Education, University of South Wales, Pontypridd, UNITED KINGDOM.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 2024 Feb 1;56(2):297-306. doi: 10.1249/MSS.0000000000003297. Epub 2023 Sep 12.
BACKGROUND/AIM: This study aimed to determine which factors were most predictive of hamstring strain injury (HSI) during different stages of the competition in professional Australian Football.
Across two competitive seasons, eccentric knee flexor strength and biceps femoris long head architecture of 311 Australian Football players (455 player seasons) were assessed at the start and end of preseason and in the middle of the competitive season. Details of any prospective HSI were collated by medical staff of participating teams. Multiple logistic regression models were built to identify important risk factors for HSI at the different time points across the season.
There were 16, 33, and 21 new HSIs reported in preseason, early in-season, and late in-season, respectively, across two competitive seasons. Multivariate logistic regression and recursive feature selection revealed that risk factors were different for preseason, early in-season, and late in-season HSIs. A combination of previous HSI, age, height, and muscle thickness were most associated with preseason injuries (median area under the curve [AUC], 0.83). Pennation angle and fascicle length had the strongest association with early in-season injuries (median AUC, 0.86). None of the input variables were associated with late in-season injuries (median AUC, 0.46). The identification of early in-season HSI and late in-season HSI was not improved by the magnitude of change of data across preseason (median AUC, 0.67).
Risk factors associated with prospective HSI were different across the season in Australian Rules Football, with nonmodifiable factors (previous HSI, age, and height) mostly associated with preseason injuries. Early in-season HSI were associated with modifiable factors, notably biceps femoris long head architectural measures. The prediction of in-season HSI was not improved by assessing the magnitude of change in data across preseason.
背景/目的：本研究旨在确定在澳大利亚职业足球比赛的不同阶段，哪些因素对腘绳肌拉伤（HSI）最具预测性。
在两个比赛赛季中，311 名澳大利亚足球运动员（455 名运动员赛季）的离心膝关节屈肌力量和股二头肌长头结构在赛季前和赛季结束时以及赛季中期进行评估。参赛队伍的医务人员收集了任何前瞻性 HSI 的详细信息。建立多变量逻辑回归模型，以确定赛季不同时间点 HSI 的重要危险因素。
在两个比赛赛季中，分别有 16、33 和 21 例新的 HSI 在赛季前、赛季早期和赛季晚期报告。多变量逻辑回归和递归特征选择表明，赛季前、赛季早期和赛季晚期的危险因素不同。以前的 HSI、年龄、身高和肌肉厚度的组合与赛季前受伤最相关（中位数曲线下面积[AUC]，0.83）。腱角和肌束长度与早期赛季受伤的关联最强（中位数 AUC，0.86）。没有输入变量与赛季晚期受伤相关（中位数 AUC，0.46）。通过赛季前数据变化的幅度来识别早期和晚期的 HSI 并没有得到改善（中位数 AUC，0.67）。
与前瞻性 HSI 相关的危险因素在澳大利亚足球比赛的整个赛季中有所不同，不可改变的因素（以前的 HSI、年龄和身高）主要与赛季前的受伤有关。早期的 HSI 与可改变的因素有关，特别是股二头肌长头的结构测量。通过评估赛季前数据变化的幅度来预测赛季中的 HSI 并没有得到改善。
