Epidemic Intelligence Center, Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, Taipei, Taiwan; Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Ministry of Health and Welfare and National Taiwan University Infectious Diseases Research and Education Center, Taipei, Taiwan.
Institute of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Ministry of Health and Welfare and National Taiwan University Infectious Diseases Research and Education Center, Taipei, Taiwan; Epidemiology Advisor, Taiwan Central Epidemic Command Center for COVID-19, Taipei, Taiwan; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; Population Health Research Center, College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.
J Formos Med Assoc. 2024 Jan;123 Suppl 1:S8-S16. doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2023.09.001. Epub 2023 Sep 14.
Despite never imposing a lockdown, Taiwan achieved COVID-19 zero, with reporting only 56 local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases after testing 126,987 individuals in 2020, and further contained a large outbreak rapidly and successfully in 2021. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, our infectious disease modeling results indicated that testing and contact tracing alone would fail to contain the pandemic. However, by supplementing this approach with general public surgical mask-wearing, the reproduction number (R0) could be suppressed to less than 1. This would effectively contain the virus's spread within Taiwan, particularly when combined with strict border control measures to prevent the overwhelming influx of imported COVID-19 cases and ensure the capacity of the medical and public health systems remains resilient. These modeling results became the theoretical basis behind the highly successful Taiwan model against COVID-19 during 2020-2021, supporting by negative excess mortality, seroepidemiological surveys, and molecular epidemiological analyses. This is a public health triumph demonstrating that a democratic and humane approach to the COVID-19 pandemic is not only feasible but highly effective. It also highlights the crucial role of infectious disease modeling in assisting the formulation of a successful national pandemic response.
尽管台湾从未实施过封锁，但在 2020 年对 126987 人进行检测后，仅报告了 56 例本地 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）病例，成功地实现了 COVID-19 零病例，并在 2021 年迅速成功地控制了一次大规模疫情。在 COVID-19 大流行开始时，我们的传染病建模结果表明，仅通过检测和接触者追踪无法控制疫情。但是，通过在这种方法的基础上补充公众普遍佩戴外科口罩，可以将繁殖数（R0）降至 1 以下。这将有效地控制病毒在台湾的传播，特别是当结合严格的边境管制措施以防止 COVID-19 病例的大量涌入并确保医疗和公共卫生系统的能力保持弹性时。这些建模结果成为 2020-2021 年台湾对抗 COVID-19 的高度成功模式的理论基础，这得到了负超额死亡率、血清流行病学调查和分子流行病学分析的支持。这是公共卫生的胜利，表明对 COVID-19 大流行采取民主和人道的方法不仅是可行的，而且是非常有效的。它还突出了传染病建模在协助制定成功的国家大流行应对措施方面的关键作用。
