Time trend of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region: age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and forecasting for 2044.

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer poses a serious medical problem worldwide. Countries in the Western Pacific Region are facing public health challenges from cancer. This study assesses the time trends of pancreatic cancer mortality in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2019 and predicts its trend to 2044.

METHODS

Mortality data were obtained from the Global Health Data Exchange. We used an age-period-cohort model to estimate age, period and birth cohort effects on pancreatic cancer mortality from 1990 to 2019 by calculating net drift, local drift, age-specific rate, period rate ratio, and cohort rate ratio. We also predict pancreatic cancer mortality to 2044 in Western Pacific countries.

RESULTS

Overall, there were 178,276 (95% uncertain interval: 157,771 to 198,636) pancreatic cancer deaths in the Western Pacific Region in 2019, accounting for 33.6% of all deaths due to pancreatic cancer worldwide. There were significant increases in pancreatic cancer disability-adjusted life years between 1990 and 2019 in the Western Pacific Region, mainly due to population growth and aging. Pancreatic cancer mortality increased with age. The period effect showed an increasing trend of mortality for both sexes over the study period. Compared to the reference period (2000 to 2004), the rate ratio was elevated in both males and females in the period of 2015 to 2019. There was an overall increasing rate ratio from early birth cohorts to recent cohorts. Deaths may continue to increase in the next 25 years in the ten countries, while most countries have seen their age-standardized rate forecasts fall.

CONCLUSION

The mortality of pancreatic cancer is still high in the Western Pacific Region. Countries/territories should focus on pancreatic cancer prevention and early cancer screening in high-risk populations. Specific public health methods and policies aimed at reducing risk factors for pancreatic cancer are also needed.