Research Center of Industrial Economy Around Hangzhou Bay, Ningbo Polytechnic, Ningbo, 315800, China.
Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen, 361021, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Oct;30(48):106390-106407. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29855-1. Epub 2023 Sep 20.
The digital economy (DE) not only drives economic innovation and development but also has significant environmental effects by promoting lower carbon emissions. To investigate the spatial effects of DE on urban carbon emissions, this study comprehensively measures the level of DE development based on the panel data from 11 typical cities in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2020, by comparing analysis using different regression models. The following conclusions are obtained: (1) The total carbon emissions (TC) of Zhejiang cities in general show a fluctuating change trend of first increasing and then slowly decreasing, while carbon emission intensity and carbon emission per capita in general show a fluctuating change trend of decreasing. Cities with high TC are primarily concentrated in the Hangzhou Bay city cluster, accounted for 62 ~ 65% of the province's carbon emissions. The development of the DE in Zhejiang cities shows steady growth, but there are large differences among cities, with Hangzhou and Ningbo standing out as particularly prominent. (2) There is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between the DE and the level of carbon emissions in Zhejiang Province. The influence coefficient of the DE on the primary term of TC is 0.613, and the influence coefficient of the quadratic term of TC is - 1.008. (3) In terms of the spatial spillover effect of the DE on carbon emissions, the study finds that compared to the direct effect, the spatial spillover effect is not significant. However, the allocation of transport resources shows a positive spatial spillover effect (increasing carbon emissions, coefficient value is 0.138), while technological progress shows a somewhat negative spatial spillover effect (decreasing carbon emissions, coefficient value is - 0.035). (4) The study also finds that the smart city pilot policy significantly reduces urban carbon emissions. Moreover, the effect of the DE on carbon emissions is confirmed through the significance test of the quadratic term when replacing the geographical and economic distance weight matrices. This indicates that the empirical findings are robust to these tests. Finally, several countermeasures to reduce carbon emissions are proposed from the perspective of DE development.
数字经济（DE）不仅通过促进低碳排放推动经济创新和发展，而且对城市碳排放也有显著的环境影响。为了研究 DE 对城市碳排放的空间效应，本研究基于 2011 年至 2020 年浙江省 11 个典型城市的面板数据，通过使用不同回归模型的对比分析，全面衡量了 DE 发展水平。得出以下结论：（1）浙江省城市的总碳排放量（TC）总体呈现先增后缓降的波动变化趋势，而碳排放量强度和人均碳排放量总体呈现波动下降的变化趋势。高 TC 城市主要集中在杭州湾城市群，占全省碳排放的 62%至 65%。浙江省城市 DE 的发展呈稳步增长态势，但城市间差异较大，杭州和宁波尤为突出。（2）浙江省 DE 与碳排放量水平之间存在显著的倒 U 型关系。DE 对 TC 一次项的影响系数为 0.613，对 TC 二次项的影响系数为-1.008。（3）就 DE 对碳排放的空间溢出效应而言，研究发现，与直接效应相比，空间溢出效应不显著。然而，交通资源配置呈现出正向空间溢出效应（增加碳排放，系数值为 0.138），而技术进步则呈现出一定的负向空间溢出效应（减少碳排放，系数值为-0.035）。（4）研究还发现，智慧城市试点政策显著降低了城市碳排放。此外，通过对地理和经济距离权重矩阵进行替换的二次项显著性检验，验证了 DE 对碳排放的影响。这表明这些测试对实证结果具有稳健性。最后，从 DE 发展的角度提出了减少碳排放的几项对策。
