School of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi, China.
School of Economics, Hainan University, Haikou, Hainan, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Sep 21;18(9):e0291464. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0291464. eCollection 2023.
It is important for China to break the "low-end lock" of the manufacturing value chain worldwide by revealing how digital trade promotes and reallocates the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. Panel data for 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 were employed to measure the digital trade development and export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. Benchmark regression, intermediary effect regression, panel threshold and other models were used to test the promotion and reallocation of digital trade on the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. The findings are as follows: (1) Digital trade promotes the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry, with significant regional heterogeneity (eastern, central and western regions), and the most obvious promotion in technology-intensive manufacturing. (2) Technological innovation and human capital play a reallocation role in the process of digital trade, affecting the technological complexity of manufacturing exports, with mediating effects of 14.19% and 8.61%, respectively. (3) Digital trade promotes and reallocates the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry through industrial structure upgrading, and a nonlinear relationship was found. These results provide empirical support and a decision-making basis for digital trade in promoting the export technology complexity of the manufacturing industry. The development of digital trade should be encouraged; the differential development of digital trade in the eastern, central, and western regions should be boosted; importance should be attached to the intermediary incentive role of technological innovation and human capital; and the upgrading of the industrial structure should be promoted scientifically.
中国需要通过揭示数字贸易如何促进和重新分配制造业的出口技术复杂度，打破全球制造业价值链的“低端锁定”。本文使用了 2011 年至 2020 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据来衡量数字贸易发展和制造业出口技术复杂度。采用基准回归、中介效应回归、面板门槛等模型检验了数字贸易对制造业出口技术复杂度的促进和重新分配作用。研究结果表明：（1）数字贸易促进了制造业的出口技术复杂度，具有显著的区域异质性（东部、中部和西部地区），在技术密集型制造业中最为明显。（2）技术创新和人力资本在数字贸易过程中发挥了再分配作用，分别对制造业出口技术复杂度产生了 14.19%和 8.61%的中介效应。（3）数字贸易通过产业结构升级促进和重新分配制造业的出口技术复杂度，并存在非线性关系。这些结果为数字贸易促进制造业出口技术复杂度提供了经验支持和决策依据。应鼓励发展数字贸易；应促进数字贸易在东部、中部和西部地区的差异化发展；应重视技术创新和人力资本的中介激励作用；应科学推动产业结构升级。
