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紧急情况下的时间序列预测方法。

Time series forecasting methods in emergency contexts.

作者信息

Villoria Hernandez P, Mariñas-Collado I, Garcia Sipols A, Simon de Blas C, Rodriguez Sánchez M C

机构信息

Department of Electronics, Rey Juan Carlos University, Madrid, Spain.

Department of Statistics and Operations Research and Mathematics Didactics, University of Oviedo, Oviedo, Spain.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Sep 26;13(1):16141. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-42917-1.

Abstract

The key issues in any fire emergency are recognising fire hotspots, locating the emergency intervention team (EI), following the evolution of the fire, and selecting the evacuation path. This leads to the study and development of HelpResponder, a solution capable of detecting the focus of interest in hostile spaces derived from fire due to high temperatures without visibility. A study is conducted to determine which model best predicts measured [Formula: see text] levels. The variables used are temperature, humidity, and air quality, obtained from sensors installed in a fire tower. The statistical methods applied, namely ARIMAX, KNN, SVM, and TBATS, allow the adjustment and modelling of the variables. Explanatory variables with temporal structure are incorporated into SVM, a new improvement proposal. Moreover, combining different models showed the best efficiency in forecasting. In fact, another contribution of our work lies in offering a small-scale prediction system that is specifically designed to save batteries. The system has been tested and validated in a hostile environment (building), simulating real emergency situations. The system has been tested and validated in several hostile environments, simulating real emergency situations. It can help firefighters respond faster in an emergency. This reduces the risks associated with the lack of information and improves the time for tactical operations, which could save lives.

摘要

任何火灾紧急情况中的关键问题包括识别火灾热点、定位应急干预小组(EI)、跟踪火灾发展情况以及选择疏散路径。这促使了HelpResponder的研究与开发,它是一种能够在高温且不可见的情况下检测火灾导致的危险空间中感兴趣焦点的解决方案。进行了一项研究以确定哪种模型能最好地预测测量的[公式:见文本]水平。所使用的变量是温度、湿度和空气质量,这些数据来自安装在消防塔中的传感器。应用的统计方法,即自回归整合移动平均外生变量模型(ARIMAX)、K近邻算法(KNN)、支持向量机(SVM)和具有趋势、季节性和节假日效应的指数平滑法(TBATS),可对变量进行调整和建模。具有时间结构的解释变量被纳入支持向量机,这是一项新的改进建议。此外,结合不同模型在预测方面显示出最佳效率。事实上,我们工作的另一项贡献在于提供一个专门为节省电池而设计的小规模预测系统。该系统已在模拟真实紧急情况的恶劣环境(建筑物)中进行了测试和验证。该系统已在多个恶劣环境中进行了测试和验证,模拟真实紧急情况。它可以帮助消防员在紧急情况下更快地做出反应。这降低了因信息不足而带来的风险,并改善了战术行动的时间,从而可能挽救生命。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1aff/10522600/7123947ea79f/41598_2023_42917_Fig2_HTML.jpg

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