Hara Takuya
Toyota Central R&D Labs., Inc, Yokomichi 41-1, Nagakute, Aichi 480-1192, Japan.
iScience. 2023 Sep 9;26(10):107872. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.107872. eCollection 2023 Oct 20.
Many studies have evaluated the economic feasibility of 100% renewable power systems using the optimization approach, but the mechanisms determining the results remain unclear, making this issue still debatable. This study presents a mathematical formulation of the mechanism that only the demand and power generation profiles determine the optimal capacities of generation and storage and their trade-off relationship. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the comprehensive quantification of the corresponding relationships among the factor cost of technologies, their optimal capacities, and total system cost. Based on these findings, the study also shows that hybrid systems comprising multiple renewable energy sources and different types of storage, including long-duration energy storage, are critical to reducing the total system cost by using actual profile data for multiple years and regions in Japan. This suggests that large-scale deployment of current-level power-to-gas technologies, such as water electrolysis, can contribute to the economics of 100% renewable power systems.
许多研究使用优化方法评估了100%可再生能源电力系统的经济可行性，但决定结果的机制仍不明确，这使得该问题仍存在争议。本研究提出了一种数学公式，该机制表明只有需求和发电曲线决定发电和储能的最佳容量及其权衡关系。此外，本研究还展示了技术要素成本、其最佳容量和系统总成本之间对应关系的综合量化。基于这些发现，该研究还表明，包括长期储能在内的多种可再生能源和不同类型储能组成的混合系统，对于利用日本多年和多个地区的实际曲线数据降低系统总成本至关重要。这表明，当前水平的水电解等电力转气技术的大规模部署有助于100%可再生能源电力系统的经济性。
