Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO 80305;
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80305.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Jun 27;114(26):6722-6727. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1610381114. Epub 2017 Jun 19.
A number of analyses, meta-analyses, and assessments, including those performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and the International Energy Agency, have concluded that deployment of a diverse portfolio of clean energy technologies makes a transition to a low-carbon-emission energy system both more feasible and less costly than other pathways. In contrast, Jacobson et al. [Jacobson MZ, Delucchi MA, Cameron MA, Frew BA (2015) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112(49):15060-15065] argue that it is feasible to provide "low-cost solutions to the grid reliability problem with 100% penetration of WWS [wind, water and solar power] across all energy sectors in the continental United States between 2050 and 2055", with only electricity and hydrogen as energy carriers. In this paper, we evaluate that study and find significant shortcomings in the analysis. In particular, we point out that this work used invalid modeling tools, contained modeling errors, and made implausible and inadequately supported assumptions. Policy makers should treat with caution any visions of a rapid, reliable, and low-cost transition to entire energy systems that relies almost exclusively on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power.
许多分析、荟萃分析和评估，包括政府间气候变化专门委员会、美国国家海洋和大气管理局、美国国家可再生能源实验室和国际能源署进行的分析、荟萃分析和评估，都得出结论认为，部署多元化的清洁能源技术组合，使向低碳排放能源系统的过渡在可行性和成本效益方面都优于其他途径。相比之下，Jacobson 等人[Jacobson MZ、Delucchi MA、Cameron MA、Frew BA（2015）Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112（49）：15060-15065]认为，通过在美国大陆所有能源领域在 2050 年至 2055 年间实现风能、水能和太阳能的 100%渗透率，为电网可靠性问题提供“低成本解决方案”是可行的，其中仅使用电力和氢气作为能源载体。在本文中，我们评估了这项研究，并发现其分析存在重大缺陷。特别是，我们指出这项工作使用了无效的建模工具，包含建模错误，并做出了不合理且没有充分支持的假设。政策制定者应该谨慎对待任何快速、可靠和低成本过渡到几乎完全依赖风能、太阳能和水力发电的整个能源系统的愿景。
