Dickason R Myles, Hertelendy Attila J, Hart Alexander, Ciottone Gregory R
BIDMC Disaster Medicine Fellowship, Department of Emergency Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center and Harvard Medical School, Boston, MassachusettsUSA.
Department of Information Systems and Business Analytics, College of Business, Florida International University, Miami, FloridaUSA.
Prehosp Disaster Med. 2023 Oct;38(5):668-676. doi: 10.1017/S1049023X23006374. Epub 2023 Sep 27.
Since 1902, disasters in the Northern Triangle of Central America, which consists of the countries Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, have caused over one-hundred-thousand deaths, affected millions of people, and caused tens of billions of dollars in damages. Understanding the nature and frequency of these events will allow stakeholders to decrease both the acute damages and the long-term deleterious consequences of disasters.
This study provides a descriptive analysis of all disasters recorded in the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) affecting Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador from 1902-2022.
Data were collected and analyzed from the EM-DAT, which categorizes disasters by frequency, severity, financial cost, distribution by country, burden of death, number of people affected, financial cost by country, and type of disasters most prevalent in each country. Results are presented as absolute numbers and as a percentage of the overall disaster burden. These trends are then graphed over the time period of the database.
The EM-DAT recorded 359 disasters in the Northern Triangle from 1902 through 2022. Meteorologic events (floods and storms) were the most common types of disaster (44%), followed by transport accidents (13%). Meteorologic events and earthquakes were the most severe, as measured by deaths (62%), people affected (60%), and financial cost (86%). Guatemala had the greatest number of disasters (45%), deaths (68%), and affected people (52%). The financial costs of the disasters were evenly distributed between the three countries.
Meteorologic disasters are the most common and most severe type of disaster in the Northern Triangle. Earthquakes and transport accidents are also common. As climate change causes more severe storms in the region, disasters are likely to increase in severity as well. Governments and aid organizations should develop disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies to lessen the catastrophic effects of future disasters. Missing data limit the conclusions of this study to general trends.
自1902年以来，中美洲北部三角地区（由危地马拉、洪都拉斯和萨尔瓦多三国组成）的灾害已造成超过10万人死亡，数百万人受灾，并造成了数百亿美元的损失。了解这些事件的性质和发生频率将使利益相关者能够减少灾害的急性损害和长期有害后果。
本研究对1902年至2022年期间影响危地马拉、洪都拉斯和萨尔瓦多的紧急事件数据库（EM-DAT）中记录的所有灾害进行了描述性分析。
从EM-DAT收集并分析数据，该数据库按频率、严重程度、财务成本、国家分布、死亡负担、受影响人数、国家财务成本以及每个国家最常见的灾害类型对灾害进行分类。结果以绝对数字和占总体灾害负担的百分比表示。然后在数据库的时间段内绘制这些趋势图。
EM-DAT记录了1902年至2022年期间北部三角地区的359起灾害。气象事件（洪水和风暴）是最常见的灾害类型（44%），其次是交通事故（13%）。从死亡人数（62%）、受影响人数（60%）和财务成本（86%）衡量，气象事件和地震最为严重。危地马拉的灾害数量（45%）、死亡人数（68%）和受影响人数（52%）最多。灾害的财务成本在这三个国家之间平均分配。
气象灾害是北部三角地区最常见、最严重的灾害类型。地震和交通事故也很常见。随着气候变化导致该地区风暴更加严重，灾害的严重程度可能也会增加。政府和援助组织应制定灾害防范和缓解战略，以减轻未来灾害的灾难性影响。数据缺失限制了本研究的结论仅为一般趋势。
