Yang Jingchao, Wang Ge, Zhang Chao
Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu 610072, China.
Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China.
Toxics. 2023 Sep 13;11(9):777. doi: 10.3390/toxics11090777.
We conducted an evaluation of the impact of meteorological factor forecasts on the prediction of fine particles in Chengdu, China, during autumn and winter, utilizing the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST)733 objective weather classification software and the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. This analysis was performed under four prevailing weather patterns. Fine particle pollution tended to occur under high-pressure rear, homogeneous-pressure, and low-pressure conditions; by contrast, fine particle concentrations were lower under high-pressure bottom conditions. The forecasts of fine particle concentrations were more accurate under high-pressure bottom conditions than under high-pressure rear and homogeneous-pressure conditions. Moreover, under all conditions, the 24 h forecast of fine particle concentrations were more accurate than the 48 and 72 h forecasts. Regarding meteorological factors, forecasts of 2 m relative humidity and 10 m wind speed were more accurate under high-pressure bottom conditions than high-pressure rear and homogeneous-pressure conditions. Moreover, 2 m relative humidity and 10 m wind speed were important factors for forecasting fine particles, whereas 2 m air temperature was not. Finally, the 24 h forecasts of meteorological factors were more accurate than the 48 and 72 h forecasts, consistent with the forecasting of fine particles.
我们利用欧洲科技合作组织(COST)733客观天气分类软件和社区多尺度空气质量模型,对中国成都秋冬季节气象因子预报对细颗粒物预测的影响进行了评估。该分析是在四种主要天气模式下进行的。细颗粒物污染往往发生在高压后部、均压和低压条件下;相比之下,高压底部条件下细颗粒物浓度较低。高压底部条件下细颗粒物浓度的预报比高压后部和均压条件下更准确。此外,在所有条件下,细颗粒物浓度的24小时预报比48小时和72小时预报更准确。关于气象因子,高压底部条件下2米相对湿度和10米风速的预报比高压后部和均压条件下更准确。此外,2米相对湿度和10米风速是预报细颗粒物的重要因子,而2米气温则不是。最后,气象因子的24小时预报比48小时和72小时预报更准确,这与细颗粒物的预报情况一致。