Department of Neurology, The First Affilated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi 710061, China.
Int J Qual Health Care. 2023 Oct 18;35(4). doi: 10.1093/intqhc/mzad079.
Ischemic stroke is featured with high incidence, mortality, and disability. The aim of this study is to use Global Burden of Disease database to describe and compare the burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province and to further predict the expected changes in the next 11 years using statistical modeling methods. Information on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality in China (mainland and Taiwan province) during 1990-2019 was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database to analyze the effects of region, gender, and age on the incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of ischemic stroke in males and females in mainland China and Taiwan province in the next 11 years. The period from 1990 to 2019 witnessed an overall upward trend in the number of incidence and deaths in mainland China and Taiwan province. In 2019, there were nearly 2.87 million ischemic incidence cases with stroke in mainland China, with more female patients than male in the age group of over 60 years. Among the nearly 1.03 million deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 85 years was higher than that of women, while in Taiwan province, the number of incidence was 28 771, with more female patients of all ages than male. Among the 6788 deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 80 years was higher than that of women. In 2019, the age group with the highest number of patients in the two regions was 65-69 years, while the highest number of deaths was found in people aged 85 years and above. As our autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted, the age-standardized incidence rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 163.23/100 000 persons in mainland China by 2030, which would continue to increase, while the age-standardized mortality rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 16.41/100 000 persons in Taiwan province by 2030, which showed a decreasing trend. Disease burden of ischemic stroke is still increasing in mainland China and Taiwan province, and health resources should be deployed to implement effective prevention and control strategies, taking into account region, gender, and age.
缺血性脑卒中具有发病率、死亡率和致残率高的特点。本研究旨在利用全球疾病负担数据库描述和比较中国大陆和台湾地区缺血性脑卒中的负担，并进一步利用统计建模方法预测未来 11 年的预期变化。从全球疾病负担数据库中获取 1990-2019 年中国（大陆和台湾）缺血性脑卒中的发病率和死亡率信息，分析地区、性别和年龄对中国缺血性脑卒中发病率和死亡率的影响。使用自回归求和移动平均模型预测中国大陆和台湾地区未来 11 年男性和女性缺血性脑卒中的年龄标准化发病率和年龄标准化死亡率。1990 年至 2019 年期间，中国大陆和台湾地区的发病率和死亡率均呈总体上升趋势。2019 年，中国大陆缺血性脑卒中发病近 287 万例，60 岁以上女性患者多于男性。近 103 万人死亡，85 岁以下男性死亡率高于女性，而在台湾，发病数为 28771 例，各年龄段女性患者多于男性。在 6788 例死亡中，80 岁以下男性死亡率高于女性。2019 年，两个地区患者人数最多的年龄组为 65-69 岁，而死亡人数最多的年龄组为 85 岁及以上。正如我们的自回归求和移动平均模型预测的那样，到 2030 年，中国大陆缺血性脑卒中的年龄标准化发病率预计为 163.23/10 万，仍呈上升趋势，而到 2030 年，台湾地区缺血性脑卒中的年龄标准化死亡率预计为 16.41/10 万，呈下降趋势。缺血性脑卒中疾病负担在中国大陆和台湾地区仍在增加，应部署卫生资源，实施有效的防控策略，同时考虑地区、性别和年龄。
