Field Station Fabrikschleichach, Animal Ecology and Tropical Biology, Biocenter, University of Würzburg, Rauhenebrach, Germany.
Bavarian Forest National Park, Grafenau, Germany.
Nature. 2024 Apr;628(8007):349-354. doi: 10.1038/s41586-023-06402-z. Epub 2023 Sep 27.
Insects have a pivotal role in ecosystem function, thus the decline of more than 75% in insect biomass in protected areas over recent decades in Central Europe and elsewhere has alarmed the public, pushed decision-makers and stimulated research on insect population trends. However, the drivers of this decline are still not well understood. Here, we reanalysed 27 years of insect biomass data from Hallmann et al., using sample-specific information on weather conditions during sampling and weather anomalies during the insect life cycle. This model explained variation in temporal decline in insect biomass, including an observed increase in biomass in recent years, solely on the basis of these weather variables. Our finding that terrestrial insect biomass is largely driven by complex weather conditions challenges previous assumptions that climate change is more critical in the tropics or that negative consequences in the temperate zone might only occur in the future. Despite the recent observed increase in biomass, new combinations of unfavourable multi-annual weather conditions might be expected to further threaten insect populations under continuing climate change. Our findings also highlight the need for more climate change research on physiological mechanisms affected by annual weather conditions and anomalies.
昆虫在生态系统功能中起着关键作用，因此近几十年来中欧和其他地区保护区中昆虫生物量减少了 75%以上，这引起了公众的警觉，促使决策者采取行动并刺激了对昆虫种群趋势的研究。然而，这种下降的驱动因素仍未得到很好的理解。在这里，我们重新分析了 Hallmann 等人 27 年来的昆虫生物量数据，使用了采样期间天气条件和昆虫生命周期期间天气异常的样本特定信息。该模型仅基于这些天气变量解释了昆虫生物量随时间减少的变化，包括近年来观察到的生物量增加。我们发现，陆地昆虫生物量在很大程度上受到复杂天气条件的驱动，这挑战了先前的假设，即气候变化在热带地区更为关键，或者温带地区的负面后果可能仅在未来发生。尽管最近观察到生物量增加，但在继续的气候变化下，新的不利多年天气条件组合可能会进一步威胁昆虫种群。我们的研究结果还强调了需要对受年度天气条件和异常影响的生理机制进行更多的气候变化研究。
