Sharp Adam C, Boyle Michael J W, Bonebrake Timothy C, Guo Yirong, Kitching Roger L, Stork Nigel E, Zeng Xiaoyi, Ashton Louise A
School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Atlantic Island Invertebrate Specialist Group, IUCN Species Survival Commission, Salisbury, UK.
Nature. 2025 Aug 6. doi: 10.1038/s41586-025-09351-x.
There is ongoing debate about the vulnerability of arthropods to climate change. Long-term impacts of climate change on arthropod communities could manifest through short-term weather patterns. Arthropods in the tropics are hyper-diverse and contribute many crucial ecosystem functions, but are comparatively less studied than in temperate regions. Tropical forest arthropods and the functions that they provide may be vulnerable to intensified El Niño events under climate change. Here we perform time-series analysis of data from primary tropical forests, which reveal long-term declines in arthropod diversity and function that were linked to El Niño occurrence. In the Americas, species losses correlated with El Niño sensitivity, and abundant species fluctuated according to feeding traits and level of ecological specialization. Parallel declines in butterflies in Southeast Asia suggested that impacts spanned continents. Predicted arthropod diversity changes correlated with observed rates of invertebrate-mediated decomposition and leaf herbivory, which were oscillating and crashing, respectively, across the tropics. Our analyses suggest that an intensified El Niño immediately threatens tropical forest arthropods and the ecosystem functions that they provide. The broader consequences remain unknown, but such widespread changes could fundamentally alter tropical forest ecosystems. Long-term monitoring of arthropod diversity and forest functioning across the tropics is paramount, as is researching the potential mechanisms that underly this novel threat.
关于节肢动物对气候变化的脆弱性，目前仍存在争议。气候变化对节肢动物群落的长期影响可能通过短期天气模式显现出来。热带地区的节肢动物种类极为丰富，发挥着许多关键的生态系统功能，但与温带地区相比，对它们的研究相对较少。在气候变化的情况下，热带森林节肢动物及其所提供的功能可能容易受到厄尔尼诺事件加剧的影响。在这里，我们对来自原始热带森林的数据进行了时间序列分析，结果显示节肢动物多样性和功能出现了长期下降，这与厄尔尼诺事件的发生有关。在美洲，物种损失与对厄尔尼诺的敏感性相关，丰富的物种根据取食特征和生态专业化水平而波动。东南亚蝴蝶数量的平行下降表明这种影响跨越了各大洲。预测的节肢动物多样性变化与观察到的无脊椎动物介导的分解速率和叶片食草率相关，这两种速率在整个热带地区分别呈现出波动和急剧下降的趋势。我们的分析表明，厄尔尼诺事件加剧立即威胁到热带森林节肢动物及其所提供的生态系统功能。更广泛的后果尚不清楚，但如此广泛的变化可能会从根本上改变热带森林生态系统。对整个热带地区节肢动物多样性和森林功能进行长期监测至关重要，研究这种新威胁背后的潜在机制也同样重要。
