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ANCOC Score to Predict Mortality in Different SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccination Status.

作者信息

Candelli Marcello, Sacco Fernandez Marta, Pignataro Giulia, Merra Giuseppe, Tullo Gianluca, Bronzino Alessandra, Piccioni Andrea, Ojetti Veronica, Gasbarrini Antonio, Franceschi Francesco

机构信息

Emergency, Anesthesiological and Reanimation Sciences Department, Fondazione Policlinico Universitario A. Gemelli-IRCCS of Rome, 00168 Rome, Italy.

Department of Emergency Medicine, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore of Rome, 00168 Rome, Italy.

出版信息

J Clin Med. 2023 Sep 8;12(18):5838. doi: 10.3390/jcm12185838.


DOI:10.3390/jcm12185838
PMID:37762779
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10532001/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: More than three years after the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic outbreak, hospitals worldwide are still affected by coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). The availability of a clinical score that can predict the risk of death from the disease at the time of diagnosis and that can be used even if population characteristics change and the virus mutates can be a useful tool for emergency physicians to make clinical decisions. During the first COVID-19 waves, we developed the ANCOC (age, blood urea nitrogen, C-reactive protein, oxygen saturation, comorbidities) score, a clinical score based on five main parameters (age, blood urea nitrogen, C-reactive protein, oxygen saturation, comorbidities) that accurately predicts the risk of death in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. A score of less than -1 was associated with 0% mortality risk, whereas a score of 6 was associated with 100% risk of death, with an overall accuracy of 0.920. The aim of our study is to internally validate the ANCOC score and evaluate whether it can predict 60-day mortality risk independent of vaccination status and viral variant. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 843 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED) of our hospital with a diagnosis of COVID-19. A total of 515 patients were admitted from July 2021 to September 2021, when the Delta variant was prevalent, and 328 in January 2022, when the Omicron 1 variant was predominant. All patients included in the study had a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) on an oropharyngeal swab. Demographic data, comorbidities, vaccination data, and various laboratory, radiographic, and blood gas parameters were collected from all patients to determine differences between the two waves. ANCOC scores were then calculated for each patient, ranging from -6 to 6. RESULTS: Patients infected with the Omicron variant were significantly older and had a greater number of comorbidities, of which hypertension and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) were the most common. Immunization was less common in Delta patients than in Omicron patients (34% and 56%, respectively). To assess the accuracy of mortality prediction, we constructed a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and found that the area under the ROC curve was greater than 0.8 for both variants. These results suggest that the ANCOC score is able to predict 60-day mortality regardless of viral variant and whether the patient is vaccinated or not. CONCLUSION: In a population with increasingly high vaccination rates, several parameters may be considered prognostic for the risk of fatal outcomes. This study suggests that the ANCOC score can be very useful for the clinician in an emergency setting to quickly understand the patient's evolution and provide proper attention and the most appropriate treatments.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/31d27ababb31/jcm-12-05838-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/beff4473ca37/jcm-12-05838-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/ffb481782ea3/jcm-12-05838-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/433ca85ae945/jcm-12-05838-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/8728b10e18d9/jcm-12-05838-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/31d27ababb31/jcm-12-05838-g005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/beff4473ca37/jcm-12-05838-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/ffb481782ea3/jcm-12-05838-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/433ca85ae945/jcm-12-05838-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/8728b10e18d9/jcm-12-05838-g004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6f03/10532001/31d27ababb31/jcm-12-05838-g005.jpg

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ANCOC Score to Predict Mortality in Different SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccination Status.

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引用本文的文献

[1]
Evolution of serious and life-threatening COVID-19 pneumonia as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed: an observational study of mortality to 60 days after admission to a 15-hospital US health system.

BMJ Open. 2024-7-8

本文引用的文献

[1]
Eosinophils as potential biomarkers in respiratory viral infections.

Front Immunol. 2023

[2]
Machine learning and predictive models: 2 years of Sars-CoV-2 pandemic in a single-center retrospective analysis.

J Anesth Analg Crit Care. 2022-10-14

[3]
Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants through pandemic waves using RT-PCR testing in low-resource settings.

PLOS Glob Public Health. 2023-6-1

[4]
Clinical progression, disease severity, and mortality among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 caused by the Omicron and Delta SARS-CoV-2 variants: A population-based, matched cohort study.

PLoS One. 2023

[5]
The utility of the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS) compared with three other early warning scores in predicting in-hospital mortality among COVID-19 patients in the emergency department: a multicenter validation study.

BMC Emerg Med. 2023-4-26

[6]
Performance of point-of-care severity scores to predict prognosis in patients admitted through the emergency department with COVID-19.

J Hosp Med. 2023-5

[7]
Is the 4C Score Still a Valid Item to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in People with SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the Omicron Variant Era?

Life (Basel). 2023-1-8

[8]
SARS-CoV-2 variant biology: immune escape, transmission and fitness.

Nat Rev Microbiol. 2023-3

[9]
External Validation of COVID-19 Risk Scores during Three Waves of Pandemic in a German Cohort-A Retrospective Study.

J Pers Med. 2022-10-28

[10]
Severity of Omicron (B.1.1.529) and Delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 infection among hospitalised adults: A prospective cohort study in Bristol, United Kingdom.

Lancet Reg Health Eur. 2023-2

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