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在奥密克戎变异株时代,4C评分仍是预测新冠病毒感染患者院内死亡率的有效指标吗?

Is the 4C Score Still a Valid Item to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in People with SARS-CoV-2 Infections in the Omicron Variant Era?

作者信息

De Vito Andrea, Colpani Agnese, Saderi Laura, Puci Mariangela, Zauli Beatrice, Meloni Maria Chiara, Fois Marco, Bitti Alessandra, Di Castri Cosimo, Fiore Vito, Maida Ivana, Babudieri Sergio, Sotgiu Giovanni, Madeddu Giordano

机构信息

Unit of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy.

Clinical Epidemiology and Medical Statistics Unit, Department of Medicine, Surgery and Pharmacy, University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy.

出版信息

Life (Basel). 2023 Jan 8;13(1):183. doi: 10.3390/life13010183.

Abstract

Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, several scores have been proposed to identify infected individuals at a higher risk of progression and death. The most famous is the 4C score. However, it was developed in early 2020. Our study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the 4C score during the wave in which the Omicron variant was prevalent. An observational study was conducted at an Italian University Hospital between 1 January and 31 July 2022. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to evaluate the ability of the 4C score to predict mortality. Overall, 1186 people were recruited, of which 160 (13.5%) died. According to the 4C score, 177 (11.6%) were classified as having a low risk of mortality, 302 (25.5%) were intermediate, 596 (50.3%) were high, and 151 (12.7%) were very high. The ROC curve of the 4C score showed an AUC (95% CI) value of 0.78 (0.74−0.82). At the criterion value of > 10, the sensitivity was 76.2% and the specificity was 62.67%. Similar to previous studies, the 4C mortality score performed well in our sample, and it is still a useful tool for clinicians to identify patients with a high risk of progression. However, clinicians must be aware that the mortality rate reported in the original studies was higher than that observed in our study.

摘要

自新冠疫情开始以来,已提出多项评分来识别进展和死亡风险较高的感染者。最著名的是4C评分。然而,它是在2020年初制定的。我们的研究旨在评估在奥密克戎变异株流行期间4C评分的准确性。2022年1月1日至7月31日在一家意大利大学医院进行了一项观察性研究。进行了受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析,以评估4C评分预测死亡率的能力。总体而言,共招募了1186人,其中160人(13.5%)死亡。根据4C评分,177人(11.6%)被归类为低死亡风险,302人(25.5%)为中度,596人(50.3%)为高度,151人(12.7%)为极高。4C评分的ROC曲线显示AUC(95%CI)值为0.78(0.74 - 0.82)。在临界值>10时,敏感性为76.2%,特异性为62.67%。与之前的研究类似,4C死亡评分在我们的样本中表现良好,它仍然是临床医生识别进展风险高的患者的有用工具。然而,临床医生必须意识到,原始研究中报告的死亡率高于我们研究中观察到的死亡率。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/8f83/9863404/6036d613ab42/life-13-00183-g001.jpg

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