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模拟中国不同自然灾害下的电力系统弹性。

Modeling the power system resilience in China under different natural disasters.

机构信息

School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China; Department of Chemistry, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.

School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2023 Dec 1;347:119151. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119151. Epub 2023 Sep 28.

Abstract

A good understanding of the power system resilience is necessary for optimizing the investment strategies and supporting the emergency rescue, but the existing quantitative estimation results based on real outage events are still lacked due to the data limitations. Therefore, this study first establishes a unified framework to measure the power system resilience under different natural disasters, by integrating the electricity performance curve with the dynamic inoperability input-output model. Then, a database of 285 Chinese historical big power outage events caused by natural disasters is established, and the city-level power system resilience values are estimated. Finally, a benefit analysis is conducted for improving the power system resilience. Our major findings are that: (1) Electricity system recoveries quickest from hail (23.05 h), while restores slowest from snowstorm (117.31 h). (2) China's city electricity system is the most resilient to the thunderstorm, while is the least resilient to the earthquake. (3) Enhancing the power system resilience will significantly reduce the requirements for rescue resources, and the saved emergency rescue cost ranges from 0.57 million yuan to 12.08 million yuan with 1% reduction of initial inoperability.

摘要

需要深入了解电力系统弹性,以便优化投资策略并为应急救援提供支持,但由于数据限制,仍然缺乏基于实际停电事件的现有定量评估结果。因此,本研究首先通过将电力性能曲线与动态不可用性投入产出模型相结合,建立了一个统一的框架来衡量不同自然灾害下的电力系统弹性。然后,建立了一个包含 285 个中国历史上由自然灾害引起的大型停电事件的数据库,并对城市级电力系统弹性值进行了估计。最后,对提高电力系统弹性的效益进行了分析。我们的主要发现是:(1)电力系统从冰雹中恢复最快(23.05 小时),而从暴风雪中恢复最慢(117.31 小时)。(2)中国城市电力系统对雷暴的弹性最强,对地震的弹性最弱。(3)提高电力系统弹性将显著降低对救援资源的需求,节省的应急救援成本范围为 57 万元至 1208 万元,初始不可用性降低 1%。

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