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基于形式概念分析的船舶溢油事故因素诊断与治理策略

Factor diagnosis and governance strategies of ship oil spill accidents based on formal concept analysis.

机构信息

College of Management, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518071, China; Shenzhen International Maritime Institute, Shenzhen 518083, China; College of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China.

College of Management, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518071, China; Shenzhen International Maritime Institute, Shenzhen 518083, China.

出版信息

Mar Pollut Bull. 2023 Nov;196:115606. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115606. Epub 2023 Sep 30.

Abstract

Ship oil spill accidents have a prolonged duration, complex consequences, challenging cleaning and repairing efforts, and pose a significant threat to the environment, economy, and society. Eliminating irrelevant information and identifying key factors using traditional methods is challenging due to the complexity of the causes of ship oil spill accidents. To address this, this article sorts out the accident databases of the International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation (ITOPF) and eight national maritime administration agencies, and innovatively constructs a formal concept analysis (FCA) model based on reports of 100-plus ship oil spill accidents. The model results prove that improper operation, less complete ship equipment, large tonnage, and poor navigation conditions are the key factors. The different causal rules of oil spills in collision/contact, grounding, fire/explosion, and foundering are further compared and analyzed. Finally, corresponding improvement measures are put forward for the key factors of oil spills and different causal rules.

摘要

船舶溢油事故具有持续时间长、后果复杂、清理和修复难度大等特点,对环境、经济和社会构成重大威胁。由于船舶溢油事故原因复杂,采用传统方法消除无关信息和识别关键因素具有挑战性。针对这一问题,本文整理了国际油轮船东防污染联合会(ITOPF)和八个国家海事管理机构的事故数据库,并创新性地基于 100 多起船舶溢油事故报告构建了一个正式概念分析(FCA)模型。模型结果证明,不当操作、设备不完备、吨位大、航行条件差是关键因素。进一步比较和分析了碰撞/接触、搁浅、火灾/爆炸和沉船导致溢油的不同因果规则。最后,针对溢油的关键因素和不同的因果规则提出了相应的改进措施。

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