Causal diagnostic model and governance strategies to reduce pollution from ship accidents in Chinese waters.

Ship transportation is a primary mode for global trade and cargo transport, yet even minor discrepancies can lead to ship accidents, causing severe secondary environmental pollution. Maritime accidents involve complex and numerous factors. Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) can identify the key contributing factors and their impact levels by eliminating homogenization factors in maritime accidents. This study constructs an innovative FCA model of ship accidents in Chinese waters, utilizing 172 ship accident reports released by the China Maritime Safety Administration. The analysis reveals seven reduced sets and 23 diagnostic rules of ship accidents. Results show that failed ship registration/security inspection, deficient nautical data and instruments, and management issues are the most critical factors. Three accident chains are identified and corresponding mitigation strategies are proposed to reduce potential pollution from ship accidents. These strategies offer significant reference value for preventing ship accidents and reducing their environmental impact in China and globally.