James Madison University.
J Health Polit Policy Law. 2024 Apr 1;49(2):217-248. doi: 10.1215/03616878-10989711.
Researchers have examined the campaign strategies, messaging, and outcomes of popular votes on tobacco tax increases from 1998 to 2008, but no study has investigated measures that have appeared since 2008.
The author uses state newspaper archives, voter pamphlets, academic reports, advocacy websites, and personal interviews to obtain information about the 11 tobacco tax increase ballot measures that appeared from 2012 to 2022.
The three measures that succeeded during 2012-2022 featured sufficient financial resources, collaboration with influential stakeholders, and early public support. Two of the three successful measures offered significant concessions to the tobacco industry, and both were designed as legislatively referred statutes. Elsewhere, proponents sought unsuccessfully to enact citizen-led initiatives that would allocate revenue to progressive policy priorities. In contrast to previous eras, tobacco industry arguments often centered around antitax and antigovernment rhetoric, which was viewed as especially compelling in conservative states. The industry's success rate was higher than in the past, and it continued to outspend its opponents, sometimes by staggering margins.
Campaign spending and early support remain critical to the success of tobacco tax ballot measures. Big Tobacco can extract significant concessions even in defeat, and direct democracy is an effective but imperfect ally to tobacco control advocates.
研究人员研究了 1998 年至 2008 年期间提高烟草税的全民投票的竞选策略、信息传递和结果，但没有研究调查自 2008 年以来出现的措施。
作者使用州报纸档案、选民小册子、学术报告、宣传网站和个人访谈来获取关于 2012 年至 2022 年期间出现的 11 项烟草税增税投票措施的信息。
在 2012-2022 年期间成功的三项措施具有充足的财政资源、与有影响力的利益相关者合作以及早期的公众支持。成功的三项措施中的两项对烟草业做出了重大让步，而且都是作为立法参考法规设计的。在其他地方，支持者试图制定公民主导的倡议，但未能成功，这些倡议旨在将收入分配给进步的政策优先事项。与过去的时代不同，烟草业的论点常常集中在反税和反政府言论上，这些言论在保守州被视为特别有说服力。该行业的成功率高于过去，并且继续超过其对手，有时差距很大。
竞选支出和早期支持仍然是烟草税投票措施成功的关键。即使在失败中，大型烟草公司也可以获得重大让步，而直接民主是烟草控制倡导者的有效但不完美的盟友。
