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2020 年全球、区域和国家早产估计数及其 2010 年以来的变化趋势:系统分析。

National, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth in 2020, with trends from 2010: a systematic analysis.

机构信息

Maternal, Adolescent, Reproductive and Child Health (MARCH) Centre, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

Human Reproduction Program (the UNDP/UNFPA/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction), Department of Sexual and Reproductive Health and Research, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

出版信息

Lancet. 2023 Oct 7;402(10409):1261-1271. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00878-4.


DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00878-4
PMID:37805217
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal mortality and is associated with long-term physical, neurodevelopmental, and socioeconomic effects. This study updated national preterm birth rates and trends, plus novel estimates by gestational age subgroups, to inform progress towards global health goals and targets, and aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth for 2020 in addition to trends between 2010 and 2020. METHODS: We systematically searched population-based, nationally representative data on preterm birth from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2020 and study data (26 March-14 April, 2021) for countries and areas with no national-level data. The analysis included 679 data points (86% nationally representative administrative data [582 of 679 data points]) from 103 countries and areas (62% of countries and areas having nationally representative administrative data [64 of 103 data points]). A Bayesian hierarchical regression was used for estimating country-level preterm rates, which incoporated country-specific intercepts, low birthweight as a covariate, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on a data quality categorisation, and other indicators such as method of gestational age estimation. FINDINGS: An estimated 13·4 million (95% credible interval [CrI] 12·3-15·2 million) newborn babies were born preterm (<37 weeks) in 2020 (9·9% of all births [95% CrI 9·1-11·2]) compared with 13·8 million (12·7-15·5 million) in 2010 (9·8% of all births [9·0-11·0]) worldwide. The global annual rate of reduction was estimated at -0·14% from 2010 to 2020. In total, 55·6% of total livebirths are in southern Asia (26·8% [36 099 000 of 134 767 000]) and sub-Saharan Africa (28·7% [38 819 300 of 134 767 000]), yet these two regions accounted for approximately 65% (8 692 000 of 13 376 200) of all preterm births globally in 2020. Of the 33 countries and areas in the highest data quality category, none were in southern Asia or sub-Saharan Africa compared with 94% (30 of 32 countries) in high-income countries and areas. Worldwide from 2010 to 2020, approximately 15% of all preterm births occurred at less than 32 weeks of gestation, requiring more neonatal care (<28 weeks: 4·2%, 95% CI 3·1-5·0, 567 800 [410 200-663 200 newborn babies]); 28-32 weeks: 10·4% [9·5-10·6], 1 392 500 [1 274 800-1 422 600 newborn babies]). INTERPRETATION: There has been no measurable change in preterm birth rates over the last decade at global level. Despite increasing facility birth rates and substantial focus on routine health data systems, there remain many missed opportunities to improve preterm birth data. Gaps in national routine data for preterm birth are most marked in regions of southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, which also have the highest estimated burden of preterm births. Countries need to prioritise programmatic investments to prevent preterm birth and to ensure evidence-based quality care when preterm birth occurs. Investments in improving data quality are crucial so that preterm birth data can be improved and used for action and accountability processes. FUNDING: The Children's Investment Fund Foundation and the UNDP, United Nations Population Fund-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

摘要

背景:早产是新生儿死亡的主要原因,与长期的身体、神经发育和社会经济影响有关。本研究更新了全国早产率和趋势,以及按孕龄亚组的新估计值,为实现全球卫生目标和指标提供信息,并旨在更新 2020 年全球早产的国家、地区和全球估计值,以及 2010 年至 2020 年期间的趋势。

方法:我们系统地检索了 2010 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 12 月 31 日期间基于人群的、全国代表性的早产数据,以及无国家一级数据的国家和地区的研究数据(2021 年 3 月 26 日至 4 月 14 日)。该分析包括来自 103 个国家和地区的 679 个数据点(62%的国家和地区有全国代表性的行政数据[64 个数据点中的 62%]),其中 86%是全国代表性的行政数据(679 个数据点中的 582 个)。采用贝叶斯分层回归估计国家一级早产率,其中包括国家特定的截距、低出生体重作为协变量、非线性时间趋势以及基于数据质量分类的偏差调整,以及其他指标,如胎龄估计方法。

结果:与 2010 年(全世界所有出生的 9.8%[9.0-11.0])相比,2020 年全球估计有 1340 万(95%可信区间[CrI]1230-1520 万)新生儿早产(<37 周)(所有出生的 9.9%[9.1-11.2%])。全球年下降率估计为 2010 年至 2020 年期间为-0.14%。全球共有 55.6%(268769000 个中的 134767000 个)的活产儿在南亚(26.8%[360990000 个中的 134767000 个])和撒哈拉以南非洲(28.7%[388193000 个中的 134767000 个]),但这两个地区占 2020 年全球所有早产的约 65%(8692000 个中的 13376200 个)。在 33 个数据质量最高的国家和地区中,没有一个在南亚或撒哈拉以南非洲,而高收入国家和地区有 94%(32 个国家中的 30 个)。2010 年至 2020 年期间,全球约有 15%的早产发生在不到 32 周的妊娠期,需要更多的新生儿护理(<28 周:4.2%,95%CI3.1-5.0,567800[410200-663200 个新生儿]);28-32 周:10.4%[9.5-10.6],1392500[1274800-1422600 个新生儿])。

解释:在过去十年中,全球早产率没有任何变化。尽管分娩设施的比例有所增加,并且对常规卫生数据系统的重视程度也有所提高,但仍有许多机会可以改善早产数据。在南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲地区,国家常规数据中早产的差距最为明显,这两个地区的早产估计负担也最高。各国需要优先投资于预防早产的方案,并确保在发生早产时提供循证的优质护理。改善数据质量的投资至关重要,以便能够改善早产数据,并将其用于行动和问责制进程。

资助:儿童投资基金基金会和开发署、联合国人口基金-儿基会-世卫组织-世界银行人类生殖研究、发展和研究培训特别方案。

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