Division of Data, Analytics, Planning and Monitoring, UNICEF, New York, NY, USA.
Division of Data, Analytics, Planning and Monitoring, UNICEF, New York, NY, USA.
Lancet. 2021 Aug 28;398(10302):772-785. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01112-0.
BACKGROUND: Stillbirths are a major public health issue and a sensitive marker of the quality of care around pregnancy and birth. The UN Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health (2016-30) and the Every Newborn Action Plan (led by UNICEF and WHO) call for an end to preventable stillbirths. A first step to prevent stillbirths is obtaining standardised measurement of stillbirth rates across countries. We estimated stillbirth rates and their trends for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 and assessed progress over time. METHODS: For a systematic assessment, we created a dataset of 2833 country-year datapoints from 171 countries relevant to stillbirth rates, including data from registration and health information systems, household-based surveys, and population-based studies. After data quality assessment and exclusions, we used 1531 datapoints to estimate country-specific stillbirth rates for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 using a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model, according to a definition of stillbirth of at least 28 weeks' gestational age. Our model combined covariates with a temporal smoothing process such that estimates were informed by data for country-periods with high quality data, while being based on covariates for country-periods with little or no data on stillbirth rates. Bias and additional uncertainty associated with observations based on alternative stillbirth definitions and source types, and observations that were subject to non-sampling errors, were included in the model. We compared the estimated stillbirth rates and trends to previously reported mortality estimates in children younger than 5 years. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, an estimated 2·0 million babies (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·9-2·2) were stillborn at 28 weeks or more of gestation, with a global stillbirth rate of 13·9 stillbirths (90% UI 13·5-15·4) per 1000 total births. Stillbirth rates in 2019 varied widely across regions, from 22·8 stillbirths (19·8-27·7) per 1000 total births in west and central Africa to 2·9 (2·7-3·0) in western Europe. After west and central Africa, eastern and southern Africa and south Asia had the second and third highest stillbirth rates in 2019. The global annual rate of reduction in stillbirth rate was estimated at 2·3% (90% UI 1·7-2·7) from 2000 to 2019, which was lower than the 2·9% (2·5-3·2) annual rate of reduction in neonatal mortality rate (for neonates aged <28 days) and the 4·3% (3·8-4·7) annual rate of reduction in mortality rate among children aged 1-59 months during the same period. Based on the lower bound of the 90% UIs, 114 countries had an estimated decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000, with four countries having a decrease of at least 50·0%, 28 having a decrease of 25·0-49·9%, 50 having a decrease of 10·0-24·9%, and 32 having a decrease of less than 10·0%. For the remaining 81 countries, we found no decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000. Of these countries, 34 were in sub-Saharan Africa, 16 were in east Asia and the Pacific, and 15 were in Latin America and the Caribbean. INTERPRETATION: Progress in reducing the rate of stillbirths has been slow compared with decreases in the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years. Accelerated improvements are most needed in the regions and countries with high stillbirth rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention of stillbirths needs increased efforts to raise public awareness, improve data collection, assess progress, and understand public health priorities locally, all of which require investment. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.
背景:死胎是一个主要的公共卫生问题,也是衡量妊娠和分娩期间护理质量的一个敏感指标。联合国全球妇女、儿童和青少年健康战略(2016-2030 年)和每个新生儿行动计划(由儿基会和世卫组织牵头)呼吁杜绝可预防的死胎。预防死胎的第一步是在各国之间获得标准化的死胎率衡量标准。我们估计了 195 个国家 2000 年至 2019 年的死胎率及其趋势,并评估了随着时间的推移取得的进展。 方法:为了进行系统评估,我们创建了一个包含 2833 个国家-年份数据点的数据集,这些数据点与死胎率有关,包括来自登记和卫生信息系统、基于家庭的调查以及基于人群的研究的数据。经过数据质量评估和排除后,我们使用 1531 个数据点,根据至少 28 周妊娠龄的死胎定义,使用贝叶斯分层时间稀疏回归模型,估计了 195 个国家 2000 年至 2019 年的具体国家的死胎率。我们的模型将协变量与时间平滑过程结合起来,以便根据高质量数据的国家-时期的数据进行估计,同时根据死胎率数据很少或没有的国家-时期的协变量进行估计。基于替代死胎定义和来源类型的观察结果以及存在非抽样误差的观察结果所带来的偏差和额外不确定性,都包含在模型中。我们将估计的死胎率和趋势与之前报告的 5 岁以下儿童死亡率进行了比较。 发现:2019 年全球估计有 200 万婴儿(90%置信区间[UI]为 190 万至 220 万)在 28 周或以上的妊娠期内死产,全球死胎率为每 1000 例总分娩 13.9 例(90%UI 为 13.5-15.4)。2019 年,各区域的死胎率差异很大,从西非和中非的每 1000 例总分娩 22.8 例(19.8-27.7)到西欧的 2.9 例(2.7-3.0)。除了西非和中非,东非和南部非洲以及南亚在 2019 年的死胎率排名第二和第三。全球死胎率的年下降速度估计为 2000 年至 2019 年期间的 2.3%(90%UI 为 1.7-2.7),低于同期新生儿死亡率(<28 天新生儿)的 2.9%(2.5-3.2)年下降率和 1-59 月龄儿童死亡率的 4.3%(3.8-4.7)年下降率。基于 90%UI 的下限,自 2000 年以来,有 114 个国家的死胎率估计有所下降,其中 4 个国家的降幅至少为 50.0%,28 个国家的降幅为 25.0-49.9%,50 个国家的降幅为 10.0-24.9%,32 个国家的降幅小于 10.0%。对于其余 81 个国家,我们没有发现自 2000 年以来死胎率有下降。其中,34 个国家在撒哈拉以南非洲,16 个在东亚和太平洋,15 个在拉丁美洲和加勒比。 解释:与 5 岁以下儿童死亡率的下降相比,减少死胎率的进展一直较为缓慢。在死胎率较高的地区和国家,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲,最需要加快改进。未来预防死胎需要加大力度提高公众认识、改善数据收集、评估进展情况以及了解当地的公共卫生重点,所有这些都需要投资。 资金:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会和英国外交、联邦及发展事务部。
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