Temsumrit Navarat
Department of Economics at Kasetsart University, 50 Ngamwongwan Rd., Chatuchak, Bangkok, 10900, Thailand.
Heliyon. 2023 Aug 30;9(9):e19521. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19521. eCollection 2023 Sep.
The demographic transition toward an aging society is a global phenomenon. An increase in the aging population directly challenges the government positions and public expenditures as it directly affects a country's aggregate demand and, thus, the country's income level. This paper investigates the impact of an aging population on the size of government spending. Using an updated dataset of 87 countries from 1996 to 2017, we study the aggregate level and each composition of government expenditures. Furthermore, we investigate whether the aging population influences the allocation of government spending toward different categories and economic growth changes. The paper uses the generalized method of moment (GMM) model for the dynamic panel data analysis to address the endogeneity problem. Our main findings suggest that an increase in the old-age population significantly induces higher aggregate government spending but only in developed countries and in particular on the spending in the social protection and environment categories. However, the aging society leads to lower government expenditure on education. Other critical findings reveal that changes in some compositions of government spending toward cultural expenditures impact growth slowdown, while an allocation toward education spending positively impacts economic growth.
人口结构向老龄化社会转变是一种全球现象。老年人口的增加直接挑战政府职能和公共支出，因为它直接影响一个国家的总需求，进而影响该国的收入水平。本文研究老龄化人口对政府支出规模的影响。利用1996年至2017年87个国家的最新数据集，我们研究了政府支出的总体水平及其各项构成。此外，我们还研究了老龄化人口是否会影响政府支出在不同类别间的分配以及经济增长变化。本文采用广义矩方法（GMM）模型进行动态面板数据分析，以解决内生性问题。我们的主要研究结果表明，老年人口的增加显著导致政府总支出增加，但仅在发达国家如此，特别是在社会保障和环境类别的支出方面。然而，老龄化社会导致政府在教育方面的支出减少。其他重要研究结果表明，政府支出中某些构成向文化支出的转变会影响经济增长放缓，而向教育支出的分配则对经济增长有积极影响。
