Mostafa Aya, Chalak Ali, Nakkash Rima, Abla Ruba, Khader Yousef S, Abu-Rmeileh Niveen Me, Salloum Ramzi G, Jawad Mohammed
Department of Community, Environmental and Occupational Medicine, Ain Shams University Faculty of Medicine, Cairo, Egypt.
Department of Agriculture, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, American University of Beirut, Beirut, Lebanon.
BMJ Glob Health. 2023 Oct;8(Suppl 8). doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012048.
Waterpipe tobacco is taxed at half the rate of cigarettes in Egypt and, unlike cigarettes, does not have a specific excise component. We aimed to simulate the introduction of a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco consumption, premature deaths and government waterpipe tobacco revenue in Egypt.
We took model inputs from the latest available data on consumption, market shares and market share prices, price elasticities of demand, tax structure and from discussions with government officials. We modelled increases to specific excise to produce a 45%, 55%, 65% and 75% tax burden and compared a simple (specific only) structure with a mixed (specific and ad valorem) structure.
Under the simple approach, introducing a US$2.1 specific tax would result in a 75% tax burden with 67% fewer waterpipe tobacco units smoked, 1 004 604 averted premature deaths and a 236% increase in government revenue relative to the current tax structure. At the 75% tax burden, the simple approach resulted in 1.5% fewer waterpipe tobacco units consumed, 9000 more averted premature deaths and 12.7% more government revenue compared with the mixed approach. Results for other tax burdens are presented and remained robust to sensitivity analyses.
Introducing a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco in Egypt can yield considerable government revenue and public health gains. We recommend the simple approach, in line with the WHO recommendations, which produces greater economic and public health gains than the mixed approach and is easier to administer for the Egyptian government.
在埃及，水烟烟草的税率是香烟税率的一半，而且与香烟不同的是，它没有特定的消费税组成部分。我们旨在模拟对埃及水烟烟草消费征收特定消费税、过早死亡情况以及政府水烟烟草收入的变化。
我们从关于消费、市场份额和市场份额价格、需求价格弹性、税收结构的最新可用数据以及与政府官员的讨论中获取模型输入数据。我们对特定消费税的增加进行建模，以产生45%、55%、65%和75%的税负，并将简单（仅特定）结构与混合（特定和从价）结构进行比较。
在简单方法下，引入2.1美元的特定税将导致75%的税负，水烟烟草吸食量减少67%，避免1004604例过早死亡，与当前税收结构相比，政府收入增加236%。在75%的税负下，与混合方法相比，简单方法导致水烟烟草消费量减少1.5%，避免的过早死亡人数增加9000例，政府收入增加12.7%。还列出了其他税负的结果，并且这些结果在敏感性分析中保持稳健。
在埃及对水烟烟草征收特定消费税可带来可观的政府收入和公共卫生效益。我们建议采用简单方法，这与世界卫生组织的建议一致，该方法比混合方法能产生更大的经济和公共卫生效益，并且对埃及政府来说更易于管理。
