1995 年至 2021 年德国（重度）大麻使用比例的趋势和预测。

Trends and projection in the proportion of (heavy) cannabis use in Germany from 1995 to 2021.

机构信息

IFT Institut für Therapieforschung, Munich, Germany.

Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Hospital, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität Munich, Munich, Germany.

出版信息

Addiction. 2024 Feb;119(2):311-321. doi: 10.1111/add.16356. Epub 2023 Oct 10.

DOI:10.1111/add.16356

PMID:37816631

Abstract

AIMS

To measure the current trends of cannabis use in Germany, measure trends in the proportion of heavy cannabis users and estimate future cannabis use rates.

DESIGN

Repeated waves of the Epidemiological Survey on Substance Abuse, a cross-sectional survey conducted between 1995 and 2021 with a two-stage participant selection strategy where respondents completed a survey on substance use delivered through the post, over the telephone or on-line.

SETTING

Germany.

PARTICIPANTS/CASES: German-speaking participants aged between 18 and 59 years living in Germany who self-reported on their cannabis use in the past 12 months (n = 78 678). With the application of a weighting scheme, the data are nationally representative.

MEASUREMENTS

Questions on the frequency of cannabis use in the past 12 months and self-reported changes in frequency of use due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

The prevalence of past 12-month cannabis users increased from 4.4% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.7, 5.1] in 1995 to 10.0% (95% CI = 8.9, 11.3) in 2021. Modeling these trends revealed a significant increase that accelerated over the past decade. The proportion of heavy cannabis users [cannabis use (almost) daily or at least 200 times per year] among past-year users has remained steady from 1995 (11.4%, 95% CI = 7.7, 16.5) to 2018 (9.5%, 95% CI = 7.6, 11.9), but significantly increased to 15.7% (95% CI = 13.1, 18.8) in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Extrapolating from these models, the prevalence of 12-month cannabis users in 2024 is expected to range between 10.4 and 15.0%, while the proportion of heavy cannabis users is unclear.

CONCLUSIONS

Trends from 1995 to 2021 suggest that the prevalence of past 12-month cannabis users in Germany will continue to increase, with expected rates between 10.4 and 15.0% for the German-speaking adult population, and that at least one in 10 cannabis users will continue to use cannabis heavily (almost daily or 200 + times in the past year).

摘要

目的

测量德国当前大麻使用趋势，测量重度大麻使用者比例的趋势，并估计未来大麻使用率。

设计

横断面调查，使用两阶段的参与者选择策略，在 1995 年至 2021 年期间进行了重复波的药物滥用流行病学调查，受访者通过邮寄、电话或在线方式完成关于物质使用的调查。

地点

德国。

参与者/案例：年龄在 18 至 59 岁之间、居住在德国的讲德语的参与者，他们在过去 12 个月内自我报告了大麻使用情况（n=78678）。通过应用加权方案，数据具有全国代表性。

测量

过去 12 个月内大麻使用频率的问题以及由于 COVID-19 大流行而导致使用频率变化的自我报告。

发现

过去 12 个月大麻使用者的患病率从 1995 年的 4.4%（95%置信区间[CI] = 3.7, 5.1）增加到 2021 年的 10.0%（95%CI = 8.9, 11.3）。对这些趋势进行建模显示，过去十年中，这一增长速度明显加快。过去一年中重度大麻使用者（几乎每天或每年至少使用 200 次）的比例自 1995 年（11.4%，95%CI = 7.7, 16.5）以来一直保持稳定，到 2018 年（9.5%，95%CI = 7.6, 11.9），但在 2021 年 COVID-19 大流行期间，这一比例显著上升至 15.7%（95%CI = 13.1, 18.8）。从这些模型推断，2024 年 12 个月大麻使用者的患病率预计在 10.4%至 15.0%之间，而重度大麻使用者的比例尚不清楚。