Centre for Youth Substance Abuse Research, University of Queensland, QLD, Australia.
Addiction. 2020 Jun;115(6):1182-1186. doi: 10.1111/add.14909. Epub 2020 Jan 15.
To estimate the proportion of cannabis consumed in Australia by daily cannabis users.
Monte Carlo simulation using parameters estimated from nationally representative and repeated cross-sectional household surveys in 2007, 2010, 2013 and 2016.
Australia PARTICIPANTS: Adult samples (mean age = 49.9; 55% females) from four National Drug Strategy Household Surveys (n = 92 243).
Frequency of cannabis use (daily/weekly/about once a month/every few months/once or twice a year). The weighted estimated prevalence of users in each of these frequency levels was multiplied by population size to estimate the total number of users. Quantity of cannabis use was measured as number of joints consumed. The consumption of those who reported using bongs was converted into joints based on the bong to joint ratio estimated from the survey data. We estimated the proportion of cannabis consumed by daily users by Monte Carlo simulation using parameters estimated from the household surveys. We conducted 10 000 simulation trials, and in each trial we [1] simulated the number of users at each consumption level (stratum) based on estimated prevalence and population size[2], for each simulated individual, we simulated the number of days of cannabis use in a year based on frequency data[3], for each consumption day, we simulated the quantity consumed [4] and lastly we calculated the total joints consumed at each consumption level and estimated the proportion of joints consumed by daily users out of the total consumption.
The prevalence of past-year cannabis use increased from 8.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.5-9.4] in 2007 to 10.5% (95% CI = 10.0-11.1) in 2016, 16% of whom were daily users. Between 2007 and 2016, daily users accounted for between 81.6 and 85.7% of all cannabis consumed. Weekly users accounted for an additional 12.1-15.9%.
Between 2007 and 2016, only one in six Australian cannabis users were daily users, but they accounted for more than 80% of the estimated cannabis consumed in Australia.
估计澳大利亚每日吸食大麻者吸食的大麻比例。
使用 2007 年、2010 年、2013 年和 2016 年全国代表性和重复横断面家庭调查中估计的参数进行蒙特卡罗模拟。
澳大利亚。
来自四项国家毒品战略家庭调查的成年样本（平均年龄为 49.9 岁，女性占 55%）（n=92243）。
大麻使用频率（每日/每周/每月约一次/每几个月一次/每年一到两次）。将这些频率水平下的每个使用者的加权估计流行率乘以人口规模，以估计使用者总数。大麻使用量的测量方法是消耗的大麻数量。根据调查数据中估计的水烟壶与大麻数量的比例，将报告使用水烟壶的人的使用量转换为大麻数量。我们使用从家庭调查中估计的参数通过蒙特卡罗模拟来估计每日使用者吸食的大麻比例。我们进行了 10000 次模拟试验，在每次试验中，[1] 根据估计的流行率和人口规模，模拟每个消费水平（分层）的使用者数量[2]，对于每个模拟个体，我们根据频率数据模拟一年中吸食大麻的天数[3]，对于每个消费日，我们模拟消耗的数量[4]，最后我们计算每个消费水平的总消耗数量，并估计每日使用者在总消耗中所占的比例。
过去一年中，大麻使用率从 2007 年的 8.9%（95%置信区间[CI]为 8.5-9.4）增加到 2016 年的 10.5%（95%CI为 10.0-11.1），其中 16%为每日使用者。2007 年至 2016 年间，每日使用者占所有大麻消耗的 81.6%-85.7%。每周使用者占 12.1%-15.9%。
2007 年至 2016 年间，只有六分之一的澳大利亚大麻使用者是每日使用者，但他们占澳大利亚估计大麻消耗量的 80%以上。
