Use of historical isoscapes to develop an estuarine nutrient baseline.

Coastal eutrophication is a prevalent threat to the healthy functioning of ecosystems globally. While degraded water quality can be detected by monitoring oxygen, nutrient concentrations, and algal abundance, establishing regulatory guidelines is complicated by a lack of baseline data (e.g., pre-Anthropocene). We use historical carbon and nitrogen isoscapes over ~300 years from sediment cores to reconstruct spatial and temporal changes in nutrient dynamics for a central California estuary, Elkhorn Slough, where development and agriculture dramatically enhanced nutrient inputs over the past century. We found strong contrasts between current sediment stable isotopes and those from the recent past, demonstrating shifts exceeding those in previously studied eutrophic estuaries and substantial increases in nutrient inputs. Comparisons of contemporary with historical isoscapes also revealed that nitrogen sources shifted from a historical marine-terrestrial gradient with higher δN near the inlet to amplified denitrification at the head and mouth of the modern estuary driven by increased N inputs. Geospatial analysis of historical data suggests that an increase in fertilizer application - rather than population growth or increases in the extent of cultivated land - is chiefly responsible for increasing nutrient loads during the 20 century. This study demonstrates the ability of isotopic and stoichiometric maps to provide important perspectives on long-term shifts and spatial patterns of nutrients that can be used to improve management of nutrient pollution.