School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056000, China E-mail:
School of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056000, China.
Water Sci Technol. 2023 Oct;88(7):1711-1723. doi: 10.2166/wst.2023.301.
Compound flooding from rainfall and storm tides is prone to occur in coastal cities. The identification of them is essential for controlling urban flooding. First, the dependence between rainfall and storm tides is quantified by Kendall's τ, Spearman's ρ, and tail dependence coefficient. Then, a bivariate copula-based probability distribution model is built to calculate the joint and conditional probability of rainfall and storm tides. Finally, MK and SQMK methods are employed to detect the trends of the dependence and joint probability. The results show that: (1) The dependence between strong rainfall and corresponding storm tides is much higher than that of small rainfall and storm tides, and the effect of tropical cyclones may be one of the reasons. (2) The dependence between rainfall and storm tides is the largest in October and the smallest in July. More attention should be paid to the compound flooding caused by rainfall and storm tides in October for Haikou. (3) The upper tail dependence coefficient of the rainfall and storm tides is significantly greater than the lower tail dependence coefficient and exhibits a significant positive trend. The results can provide additional insights into the effect of rainfall and storm tides for coastal flood management.
沿海城市容易发生由降雨和风暴潮引起的复合洪灾。识别它们对于控制城市洪水至关重要。首先，通过 Kendall's τ、Spearman's ρ 和尾部依赖系数来量化降雨和风暴潮之间的依赖性。然后，建立基于二元 Copula 的概率分布模型来计算降雨和风暴潮的联合和条件概率。最后，采用 MK 和 SQMK 方法来检测依赖性和联合概率的趋势。结果表明：（1）强降雨和相应风暴潮之间的依赖性远高于小降雨和风暴潮之间的依赖性，热带气旋的影响可能是其中一个原因。（2）降雨和风暴潮之间的依赖性在 10 月最大，7 月最小。海口应更加关注 10 月由降雨和风暴潮引起的复合洪灾。（3）降雨和风暴潮的上尾依赖系数显著大于下尾依赖系数，并呈现显著的正趋势。研究结果可为沿海洪水管理中降雨和风暴潮的影响提供更多的见解。
