Earth and Environmental Sciences Programme and Graduate Division of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Earth and Environmental Sciences Programme and Graduate Division of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Faculty of Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; State Key Laboratory of Agrobiotechnology and Institute of Environment, Energy and Sustainability, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jan 1;906:167759. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167759. Epub 2023 Oct 11.
Surface ozone (O) is a major air pollutant and greenhouse gas with significant risks to human health, vegetation, and climate. Uncertainties around the impacts of various critical factors on O is crucial to understand. We used the Community Earth System Model to investigate the impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC), climate, and emissions on global O air quality under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our findings show that increasing forest cover by 20 % under SSP1 in East China, Europe, and the eastern US leads to higher isoprene emissions leading 2-5 ppb increase in summer O levels. Climate-induced meteorological changes, like rising temperatures, further enhance BVOC emissions and increase O levels by 10-20 ppb in urban areas with high NO levels. However, higher BVOC emissions can reduce O levels by 5-10 ppb in remote environments. Future NO emissions control reduces O levels by 5-20 ppb in the US and Europe in all SSPs, but reductions in NO and changes in oxidant titration increase O in southeast China in SSP5. Increased NO emissions in southern Africa and India significantly elevate O levels up to 15 ppb under different SSPs. Climate change is equally important as emissions changes, sometimes countering the benefits of emissions control. The combined effects of emissions, climate, and land cover result in worse O air quality in northern India (+40 %) and East China (+20 %) under SSP3 due to anthropogenic NO and climate-induced BVOC emissions. Over the northern hemisphere, surface O decreases due to reduced NO emissions, although climate and land use changes can increase O levels regionally. By 2050, O levels in most Asian regions exceed the World Health Organization safety limit for over 150 days per year. Our study emphasizes the need to consider complex interactions for effective air pollution control and management in the future.
地表臭氧（O）是一种主要的空气污染物和温室气体，对人类健康、植被和气候都有重大风险。了解各种关键因素对 O 的影响的不确定性至关重要。我们使用地球系统模式来研究在选定的共享社会经济路径（SSP）下，土地利用和土地覆盖变化（LULCC）、气候和排放对全球 O 空气质量的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在 SSP1 情景下，东亚、欧洲和美国东部的森林覆盖率增加 20%，将导致异戊二烯排放增加，夏季 O 浓度增加 2-5 ppb。气候引起的气象变化，如气温升高，进一步增加 BVOC 排放，使高 NO 水平的城市地区 O 浓度增加 10-20 ppb。然而，在偏远地区，较高的 BVOC 排放可使 O 浓度降低 5-10 ppb。未来的 NO 排放控制可使所有 SSP 下的美国和欧洲的 O 浓度降低 5-20 ppb，但 NO 的减少和氧化剂滴定的变化会使 SSP5 下的中国东南部的 O 浓度增加。南非和印度的 NO 排放增加会使 O 浓度显著升高，在不同 SSP 下高达 15 ppb。气候变化与排放变化同样重要，有时会抵消排放控制的好处。排放、气候和土地覆盖的综合影响导致 SSP3 下印度北部（+40%）和中国东部（+20%）的 O 空气质量恶化，原因是人为的 NO 和气候引起的 BVOC 排放。在北半球，由于 NO 排放减少，地表 O 减少，尽管气候和土地利用变化可能会使区域 O 浓度增加。到 2050 年，亚洲大部分地区的 O 浓度每年超过世界卫生组织的安全限值 150 天以上。我们的研究强调，需要考虑复杂的相互作用，以实现未来有效的空气污染控制和管理。
