Department of Botany and Plant Physiology, University of Malaga, Campus de Teatinos S/N., E-29071 Malaga, Spain.
Department of Plant Biology, Ecology and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Extremadura, Avda. Elvas s/n, Badajoz, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jan 1;906:167800. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167800. Epub 2023 Oct 12.
Ornamental trees can reduce some of the negative impacts of urbanization on citizens but some species, such as Platanus spp., produce pollen with high allergenic potential. This can exacerbate the symptomatology in allergic patients, being a public health problem. Therefore, it would be relevant to determine the environmental conditions regulating the flowering onset of the Platanus species. The aims of this study were to use aerobiological records for modelling the thermal requirements of Platanus flowering and to make future projections based on the effects that climate change could have on it under several possible future scenarios. This study was conducted in Badajoz and Malaga, two Western Mediterranean cities with different climate conditions. In the first step, several main pollen season definitions were applied to the aerobiological data and their onset dates were compared with in situ phenological observations. The main pollen season definition that best fitted the Platanus flowering onset was based on the 4th derivative of a logistic function. This definition was used as a proxy to model the thermal requirements of the Platanus flowering onset by applying the PhenoFlex statistical framework. The errors obtained by this model during the external validation were 3.2 days on average, so it was fed with future temperature estimations to determine possible future trends. According to the different models, the flowering onset of Platanus in Badajoz will show heterogeneous responses in the short and medium term due to different balances in the chilling-forcing compensation, while it will clearly delay in Malaga due to a significant delay in the chilling requirement fulfilment. This may increase the chances of cross-reactivity episodes with other pollen types in the future, increasing its impact on public health.
观赏树木可以减轻城市化对市民的一些负面影响，但有些物种，如悬铃木属（Platanus spp.），其花粉具有很高的致敏性。这可能会使过敏患者的症状恶化，成为一个公共卫生问题。因此，确定调节悬铃木属开花起始的环境条件将是相关的。本研究的目的是使用气传花粉记录来模拟悬铃木属开花的热需求，并根据气候变化对其可能产生的影响，在几种可能的未来情景下进行未来预测。本研究在巴达霍斯和马拉加两个具有不同气候条件的西地中海城市进行。在第一步中，将几种主要花粉季节定义应用于气传花粉数据，并将其起始日期与现场物候观测进行比较。与悬铃木属开花起始最吻合的主要花粉季节定义是基于逻辑函数的 4 阶导数。该定义被用作模型的代理，通过应用 PhenoFlex 统计框架来模拟悬铃木属开花起始的热需求。该模型在外部验证期间的平均误差为 3.2 天，因此将其与未来的温度估计相结合，以确定可能的未来趋势。根据不同的模型，巴达霍斯的悬铃木属开花起始在短期内和中期会表现出不均匀的响应，因为冷胁迫补偿的平衡不同，而在马拉加则会明显延迟，因为冷需求的满足会显著延迟。这可能会增加未来与其他花粉类型交叉反应的机会，从而增加其对公共卫生的影响。
