Fernández-Alvarez José C, Pérez-Alarcón Albenis, Eiras-Barca Jorge, Rahimi Stefan, Nieto Raquel, Gimeno Luis
Centro de Investigación Mariña, Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus As Lagoas s/n, Ourense, 32004, Spain.
Departamento de Meteorología, Instituto Superior de Tecnologías y Ciencias Aplicadas, Universidad de La Habana, La Habana, Cuba.
Nat Commun. 2023 Oct 14;14(1):6476. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-41915-1.
Global warming and associated changes in atmospheric circulation patterns are expected to alter the hydrological cycle, including the intensity and position of moisture sources. This study presents predicted changes for the middle and end of the 21st century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for two important extratropical moisture sources: the North Atlantic Ocean (NATL) and Mediterranean Sea (MED). Changes over the Iberian Peninsula-considered as a strategic moisture sink for its location-are also studied in detail. By the end of the century, moisture from the NATL will increase precipitation over eastern North America in winter and autumn and on the British Isles in winter. Moisture from the MED will increase precipitation over the southern and western portions of the Mediterranean continental area. Precipitation associated with the MED moisture source will decrease mainly over eastern Europe, while that associated with the NATL will decrease over western Europe and Africa. Precipitation recycling on the Iberian Peninsula will increase in all seasons except summer for mid-century. Climate change, as simulated by CESM2 thus modifies atmospheric moisture transport, affecting regional hydrological cycles.
全球变暖和大气环流模式的相关变化预计将改变水文循环，包括水汽源的强度和位置。本研究展示了在SSP5-8.5情景下，21世纪中叶和末期两个重要的温带水汽源——北大西洋（NATL）和地中海（MED）的预测变化。还详细研究了伊比利亚半岛因其地理位置被视为重要水汽汇的变化情况。到本世纪末，来自北大西洋的水汽将增加北美东部冬季和秋季以及不列颠群岛冬季的降水量。来自地中海的水汽将增加地中海大陆地区南部和西部的降水量。与地中海水汽源相关的降水将主要在东欧减少，而与北大西洋相关的降水将在西欧和非洲减少。到本世纪中叶，伊比利亚半岛除夏季外所有季节的降水再循环都会增加。因此，CESM2模拟的气候变化改变了大气水汽输送，影响了区域水文循环。
