Wang Xue, Razmjooy Saeid
Admissions and Employment Guidance Center, Xi'an Peihua University, Xi'an 710125, Shaanxi, China.
Department of Engineering, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 29;9(10):e20527. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20527. eCollection 2023 Oct.
Accurate prediction of energy demand is crucial for improving services, reducing costs, and optimizing operations in energy systems. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have emerged as a popular method for energy demand forecasting. However, the performance of DNNs can be affected by data quality and hyperparameter selection. To address these concerns, this study proposes a novel energy demand forecasting technique that combines DNNs with an enhanced Giza pyramid construction methodology. The aim of this study is to provide a more reliable and effective approach for forecasting energy demand. The DNNs are employed to capture the complex relationships between input and output variables, while the Giza pyramids algorithm is utilized to optimal selection of hyperparameters of the network. Real-world energy demand data is used to evaluate the proposed approach, comparing it with state-of-the-art baseline models. The research methodology involves assessing the suggested approach using real-world energy demand information and conducting a comparative analysis with cutting-edge baseline models, including modified BP neural network (MBPNN), Neural Network based Genetic Algorithm (NNGA), and reinforcement learning and deep neural network (RLDNN). The IGPCA/CNN method outperforms other methods in energy prediction accuracy across short-term, medium-term, and long-term time scales. It achieves an MSE score of 0.564, lower than MBPNN, NNGA, and RLDNN. In medium-term prediction, it achieves an MSE score of 0.587, better than MBPNN, NNGA, and RLDNN. In long-term prediction, it achieves an MSE score of 0.629, lower than MBPNN and RLDNN. Further analysis and validation experiments are needed to ensure robustness and generalizability. Comparing the method with other state-of-the-art approaches can provide a comprehensive understanding of its superiority. The performance of the models is evaluated based on reliability and effectiveness in energy demand forecasting. The major conclusion of this study is that the proposed approach outperforms the initial models in accurately forecasting energy demand. The combination of DNNs and the improved Giza pyramid construction methodology results in enhanced performance, demonstrating superior reliability and effectiveness compared to other models. The study highlights the significance of accurate energy demand prediction for optimizing energy systems and reducing costs.
准确预测能源需求对于改善能源系统中的服务、降低成本和优化运营至关重要。深度神经网络(DNN)已成为一种流行的能源需求预测方法。然而,DNN的性能可能会受到数据质量和超参数选择的影响。为了解决这些问题,本研究提出了一种将DNN与增强的吉萨金字塔构建方法相结合的新型能源需求预测技术。本研究的目的是为预测能源需求提供一种更可靠、更有效的方法。DNN用于捕捉输入和输出变量之间的复杂关系,而吉萨金字塔算法则用于网络超参数的优化选择。使用实际能源需求数据来评估所提出的方法,并将其与最先进的基线模型进行比较。研究方法包括使用实际能源需求信息评估所建议的方法,并与前沿基线模型进行比较分析,包括改进的BP神经网络(MBPNN)、基于神经网络的遗传算法(NNGA)以及强化学习和深度神经网络(RLDNN)。IGPCA/CNN方法在短期、中期和长期时间尺度上的能源预测准确性方面优于其他方法。它的均方误差(MSE)得分为0.564,低于MBPNN、NNGA和RLDNN。在中期预测中,它的MSE得分为0.587,优于MBPNN、NNGA和RLDNN。在长期预测中,它的MSE得分为0.629,低于MBPNN和RLDNN。需要进一步的分析和验证实验来确保稳健性和通用性。将该方法与其他最先进的方法进行比较可以全面了解其优越性。基于能源需求预测的可靠性和有效性对模型的性能进行评估。本研究的主要结论是,所提出的方法在准确预测能源需求方面优于初始模型。DNN与改进的吉萨金字塔构建方法的结合提高了性能,与其他模型相比显示出更高的可靠性和有效性。该研究强调了准确的能源需求预测对于优化能源系统和降低成本的重要性。