Weinzierl Matthew
Harvard Business School, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02163.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2023 Oct 24;120(43):e2221347120. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2221347120. Epub 2023 Oct 16.
In this speculative article, I argue that the expansion of economic activity in space may offer a uniquely promising way to escape indefinitely from what economists call "secular stagnation," a state of self-fulfilling, persistently sluggish economic growth that has increasingly threatened high-income countries. Economists have pointed to both supply-side and demand-side drivers of secular stagnation, and space as a focal point for investment can-at least in principle-address both. On the supply side, space is an unlimited frontier that, as have frontiers in the past, may inspire the individualism, innovation, and world-building needed to sustainably increase productivity and population growth. On the demand side, public investment toward increased economic activity in space could meaningfully add to aggregate demand if it reached historical peak benchmarks in the United States.
在这篇推测性文章中，我认为太空经济活动的扩张可能提供一种独特且前景广阔的方式，让我们能无限期地摆脱经济学家所称的“长期停滞”，即一种自我实现且持续低迷的经济增长状态，这种状态日益威胁着高收入国家。经济学家们指出了长期停滞的供给侧和需求侧驱动因素，而将太空作为投资焦点至少在原则上可以解决这两方面问题。在供给侧，太空是一个无限的前沿领域，就像过去的前沿领域一样，可能激发维持生产力可持续增长和人口增长所需的个人主义、创新及开拓精神。在需求侧，如果美国对太空经济活动增加的公共投资达到历史峰值基准，那么这将切实增加总需求。
