Physical Therapy Program, University of Jamestown, Fargo, North Dakota, USA.
Department of Radiology, University of South Florida Morsani College of Medicine, Tampa, Florida, USA.
J Forensic Sci. 2024 Jan;69(1):18-27. doi: 10.1111/1556-4029.15406. Epub 2023 Oct 18.
The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between vertebral margins at individual vertebral levels between T12-L5 vertebra and chronological age and develop predictive models. Three hundred and nineteen CT scans from a medical imaging database in North America were randomly selected. Three superior and inferior vertebral margin sites were scored based on observable age-related changes. All individual vertebral margin site scores significantly correlated with age at death with Pearson r values ranging from 0.47 to 0.77. Totaling the individual vertebral margin site scores for L1-L5 improved Pearson r to 0.92. All resulting predictive models were significant, and the best models predicted age at death within 10 years 70%-76% of the time for males, females, and combined male and females. In conclusion, this study produced accurate and reliable models to predict age at death using age-related changes in the spine for a North American population.
本研究旨在确定 T12-L5 椎体各椎体水平的椎缘与年龄的关系，并建立预测模型。从北美的一个医学影像数据库中随机选择了 319 例 CT 扫描。根据可观察到的与年龄相关的变化，对三个上缘和下缘部位进行评分。所有个体椎缘部位评分与死亡年龄均显著相关，皮尔逊 r 值范围为 0.47 至 0.77。将 L1-L5 的个体椎缘部位评分相加，可将皮尔逊 r 值提高到 0.92。所有预测模型均有统计学意义，最佳模型对男性、女性和男女混合人群的死亡年龄预测准确率在 70%-76%之间，可在 10 年内预测。总之，本研究为使用北美人种脊柱的年龄相关性变化来预测死亡年龄提供了准确可靠的模型。
