College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha, P.R. China.
Key Laboratory of Environmental Biology and Pollution Control (Hunan University), Ministry of Education, Changsha, P.R. China.
Conserv Biol. 2024 Jun;38(3):e14204. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14204. Epub 2024 Feb 2.
The potential for species to shift their ranges to avoid extinction is contingent on the future availability and accessibility of habitats with analogous climates. To develop conservation strategies, many previous researchers used a single method that considered individual factors; a few combined 2 factors. Primarily, these studies focused on identifying climate refugia or climatically connected and spatially fixed areas, ignoring the range shifting process of animals. We quantified future habitat availability (based on species occurrence, climate data, land cover, and elevation) and accessibility (based on climate velocity) under climate change (4 scenarios) of migratory birds across the Yangtze River basin (YRB). Then, we assessed species' range-shift potential and identified conservation priority areas for migratory birds in the 2050s with a network analysis. Our results suggested that medium (i.e., 5-10 km/year) and high (i.e., ≥ 10 km/year) climate velocity would threaten 18.65% and 8.37% of stable habitat, respectively. Even with low (i.e., 0-5 km/year) climate velocity, 50.15% of climate-velocity-identified destinations were less available than their source habitats. Based on our integration of habitat availability and accessibility, we identified a few areas of critical importance for conservation, mainly in Sichuan and the middle to lower reaches of the YRB. Overall, we identified the differences between habitat availability and accessibility in capturing biological responses to climate change. More importantly, we accounted for the dynamic process of species' range shifts, which must be considered to identify conservation priority areas. Our method informs forecasting of climate-driven distribution shifts and conservation priorities.
物种转移其分布范围以避免灭绝的可能性取决于未来是否有类似气候的栖息地可用和可进入。为了制定保护策略，许多先前的研究人员使用了一种仅考虑单个因素的单一方法；少数人结合了 2 个因素。这些研究主要集中在确定气候避难所或气候连接和空间固定的区域，而忽略了动物的分布范围转移过程。我们量化了候鸟在长江流域（YRB）未来气候变化（4 种情景）下的未来栖息地可用性（基于物种出现、气候数据、土地覆盖和海拔）和可及性（基于气候速度）。然后，我们使用网络分析评估了物种的分布范围转移潜力，并确定了 2050 年代候鸟的保护优先区。我们的结果表明，中速（即 5-10 公里/年）和高速（即≥10 公里/年）气候速度将分别威胁稳定栖息地的 18.65%和 8.37%。即使气候速度较低（即 0-5 公里/年），50.15%的气候速度确定的目的地的可用性也低于其源生境。基于我们对栖息地可用性和可及性的综合分析，我们确定了一些具有重要保护意义的区域，主要在四川和长江中下游地区。总体而言，我们确定了栖息地可用性和可及性在捕捉生物对气候变化的响应方面的差异。更重要的是，我们考虑了物种分布范围转移的动态过程，这是确定保护优先区所必需的。我们的方法为预测气候驱动的分布转移和确定保护优先区提供了信息。
