Department of Biology and Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
J Math Biol. 2023 Oct 20;87(5):74. doi: 10.1007/s00285-023-02001-8.
Infectious diseases continue to pose a significant threat to the health of humans globally. While the spread of pathogens transcends geographical boundaries, the management of infectious diseases typically occurs within distinct spatial units, determined by geopolitical boundaries. The allocation of management resources within and across regions (the "governance structure") can affect epidemiological outcomes considerably, and policy-makers are often confronted with a choice between applying control measures uniformly or differentially across regions. Here, we investigate the extent to which uniform and non-uniform governance structures affect the costs of an infectious disease outbreak in two-patch systems using an optimal control framework. A uniform policy implements control measures with the same time varying rate functions across both patches, while these measures are allowed to differ between the patches in a non-uniform policy. We compare results from two systems of differential equations representing transmission of cholera and Ebola, respectively, to understand the interplay between transmission mode, governance structure and the optimal control of outbreaks. In our case studies, the governance structure has a meaningful impact on the allocation of resources and burden of cases, although the difference in total costs is minimal. Understanding how governance structure affects both the optimal control functions and epidemiological outcomes is crucial for the effective management of infectious diseases going forward.
传染病仍然对全球人类的健康构成重大威胁。虽然病原体的传播超越了地理边界,但传染病的管理通常发生在特定的空间单元内,由地缘政治边界决定。在区域内和区域之间分配管理资源(“治理结构”)会对流行病学结果产生重大影响,决策者经常面临在区域内或区域间统一或差异化应用控制措施的选择。在这里,我们使用最优控制框架研究了在两斑块系统中,统一和非统一的治理结构在多大程度上影响传染病爆发的成本。统一政策在两个斑块上使用相同的时变率函数实施控制措施,而在非统一政策中允许这些措施在斑块之间有所不同。我们比较了分别代表霍乱和埃博拉传播的两个微分方程系统的结果,以了解传播模式、治理结构和疫情的最优控制之间的相互作用。在我们的案例研究中,治理结构对资源的分配和病例负担有重要影响,尽管总成本的差异很小。了解治理结构如何影响最优控制函数和流行病学结果对于传染病的有效管理至关重要。