Abedin Imon, Mukherjee Tanoy, Kang Hye-Eun, Yoon Tae-Ho, Kim Hyun-Woo, Kundu Shantanu
Agricultural and Ecological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, 700108, India.
Institute of Marine Life Science, Pukyong National University, Busan, 48513, Republic of Korea.
Heliyon. 2024 Apr 26;10(9):e30273. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e30273. eCollection 2024 May 15.
The endangered and poorly known Swamp Grass-babbler, (Passeriformes: Pellorneidae), confronts critical threats and vulnerability due to its specific habitat requirements and restricted populations in the northeastern region of the Indian Subcontinent. This study investigates the distribution of the species, habitat quality, geometry and shape complexity of connectivity among the protected areas (PAs), and responses to climate change in Northeast India under different climate change pathways by utilizing ensemble distribution models, and ecological metrics. From the total distribution extent (1,42,000 km), approximately 9366 km (6.59 %) is identified as the suitable habitat for this threatened species. Historically centered around Dibru Saikhowa National Park (DSNP), the species faced a drastic decline due to anthropogenic activities and alteration in land use and lover cover. The study also reveals a significant decline in suitable habitat for in future climate scenarios, with alarming reductions under SSP126 (>10 % in the timeframe 2041-2060 and > 30 % from 2061 to 2080), SSP245 (>90 % in both time periods), and SSP585 (>90 % in both timeframes) from the present scenario. At present, DSNP has the most suitable habitat within the distribution range but is projected to decline (>90 %) under more severe climate change scenarios, as observed in other PAs. Landscape fragmentation analysis indicates a shift in habitat geometry, highlighting the intricate impact of climate change. It predicts a substantial 343 % increase (in the SSP126) in small habitat patches in the future. Connectivity analysis among PAs shows a significant shift, with a decline exceeding 20 %. The analysis of shape complexity and connectivity geometry reveals a significant increase of over 220 % in the fragmentation of connectivity among PAs between 2061 and 2080 under the SSP585 climate change scenario compared to the present conditions. The study underscores the urgent need for conservation actions, emphasizing the complex interplay of climate change, habitat suitability, and fragmentation. Prioritizing PAs with suitable habitats and assessing their connectivity is crucial. Adaptive management strategies are essential to address ongoing environmental changes and safeguard biodiversity. Future research in critical areas is needed to establish long-term monitoring programs to lead/extend effective conservation strategies.
濒危且鲜为人知的沼泽草鹛（雀形目：幽鹛科）因其特定的栖息地需求以及在印度次大陆东北部地区数量有限，面临着严峻的威胁和脆弱性。本研究利用集合分布模型和生态指标，调查了该物种在印度东北部不同气候变化路径下的分布、栖息地质量、保护区（PA）之间连通性的几何形状和形状复杂性以及对气候变化的响应。在其总分布范围（142,000平方千米）中，约9366平方千米（6.59%）被确定为该濒危物种的适宜栖息地。该物种历史上以迪布鲁 - 赛科沃阿国家公园（DSNP）为中心，由于人为活动以及土地利用和植被覆盖的改变，其数量急剧下降。研究还表明，在未来气候情景下，适宜栖息地将大幅减少，在SSP126情景下（2041 - 2060年期间超过10%，2061年至2080年超过30%）、SSP245情景下（两个时间段均超过90%）以及SSP585情景下（两个时间段均超过90%），与当前情景相比均出现惊人的减少。目前，DSNP在分布范围内拥有最适宜的栖息地，但预计在更严峻的气候变化情景下会减少（超过90%），其他保护区也有类似情况。景观破碎化分析表明栖息地几何形状发生了变化，凸显了气候变化的复杂影响。预测未来小栖息地斑块数量将大幅增加343%（在SSP126情景下）。保护区之间的连通性分析显示出显著变化，下降幅度超过20%。形状复杂性和连通性几何形状分析表明，与当前状况相比，在SSP585气候变化情景下，2061年至2080年期间保护区之间连通性破碎化显著增加超过220%。该研究强调了采取保护行动的迫切需求，突出了气候变化、栖息地适宜性和破碎化之间的复杂相互作用。优先考虑拥有适宜栖息地的保护区并评估其连通性至关重要。适应性管理策略对于应对持续的环境变化和保护生物多样性至关重要。需要在关键领域开展未来研究，以建立长期监测计划，引领/扩展有效的保护策略。
