Oluwasakin Ebenezer O, Khaliq Abdul Q M
Department of Mathematical Sciences, Middle Tennessee State University, Murfreesboro, TN 37132, USA.
Epidemiologia (Basel). 2023 Oct 20;4(4):420-453. doi: 10.3390/epidemiologia4040037.
Infectious disease epidemics are challenging for medical and public health practitioners. They require prompt treatment, but it is challenging to recognize and define epidemics in real time. Knowing the prediction of an infectious disease epidemic can evaluate and prevent the disease's impact. Mathematical models of epidemics that work in real time are important tools for preventing disease, and data-driven deep learning enables practical algorithms for identifying parameters in mathematical models. In this paper, the SIR model was reduced to a logistic differential equation involving a constant parameter and a time-dependent function. The time-dependent function leads to constant, rational, and birational models. These models use several constant parameters from the available data to predict the time and number of people reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant. Two out of these three models, rational and birational, provide accurate predictions for countries that practice strict mitigation measures, but fail to provide accurate predictions for countries that practice partial mitigation measures. Therefore, we introduce a time-series model based on neural networks to predict the time and number of people reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant in a given country that practices both partial and strict mitigation measures. A logistics-informed neural network algorithm was also introduced. This algorithm takes as input the daily and cumulative number of people who are reported to be infected with the COVID-19 Omicron variant in the given country. The algorithm helps determine the analytical solution involving several constant parameters for each model from the available data. The accuracy of these models is demonstrated using error metrics on Omicron variant data for Portugal, Italy, and China. Our findings demonstrate that the constant model could not accurately predict the daily or cumulative infections of the COVID-19 Omicron variant in the observed country because of the long series of existing data of the epidemics. However, the rational and birational models accurately predicted cumulative infections in countries adopting strict mitigation measures, but they fell short in predicting the daily infections. Furthermore, both models performed poorly in countries with partial mitigation measures. Notably, the time-series model stood out for its versatility, effectively predicting both daily and cumulative infections in countries irrespective of the stringency of their mitigation measures.
传染病疫情对医学和公共卫生从业者来说是一项挑战。它们需要及时治疗,但要实时识别和定义疫情具有挑战性。了解传染病疫情的预测可以评估并预防该疾病的影响。实时运行的传染病数学模型是预防疾病的重要工具,而数据驱动的深度学习能够实现用于识别数学模型中参数的实用算法。在本文中,SIR模型被简化为一个涉及常数参数和时间相关函数的逻辑微分方程。该时间相关函数产生了常数模型、有理模型和双有理模型。这些模型利用可用数据中的几个常数参数来预测报告感染新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株的时间和人数。这三个模型中的两个,即有理模型和双有理模型,对实施严格缓解措施的国家能提供准确预测,但对实施部分缓解措施的国家则无法提供准确预测。因此,我们引入一种基于神经网络的时间序列模型,以预测在实施部分和严格缓解措施的特定国家中报告感染新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株的时间和人数。还引入了一种基于逻辑的神经网络算法。该算法将特定国家中报告感染新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株的每日和累计人数作为输入。该算法有助于从可用数据中确定每个模型涉及几个常数参数的解析解。使用葡萄牙、意大利和中国的奥密克戎变异株数据的误差指标来证明这些模型的准确性。我们的研究结果表明,由于疫情存在大量现有数据,常数模型无法准确预测观察到的国家中新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株的每日或累计感染情况。然而,有理模型和双有理模型准确预测了采取严格缓解措施国家的累计感染情况,但在预测每日感染情况方面表现不佳。此外,这两个模型在采取部分缓解措施的国家中表现也很差。值得注意的是,时间序列模型因其通用性脱颖而出,无论缓解措施的严格程度如何,都能有效预测各国的每日和累计感染情况。