Liu Lilingjun, Qin Xiaosheng
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore, 639798, Singapore.
Int J Biometeorol. 2023 Dec;67(12):2055-2068. doi: 10.1007/s00484-023-02562-9. Epub 2023 Oct 25.
Heatwaves have caused significant damage to human health, infrastructure, and economies in recent decades, and the occurrences of heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe across the globe under climate change. The previous studies on heatwaves have primarily focused on air temperature, neglecting other variables like wind speed, relative humidity, and radiation, which could lead to a serious underestimation of the adverse effects of heatwaves. To address this issue, this study proposed to the use of more sophisticated thermal indices, such as universal thermal climate index (UTCI) and apparent temperature (AT), to define heatwaves and carry out a comprehensive heatwave assessment over mainland southeast Asia (MSEA) from 1961 to 2020. The traditional temperature-based method was also compared. The results of the study demonstrate that the annual maximum temperature in heatwave days (HWA) and the annual average temperature in heatwave days (HWM) are significantly underestimated if only air temperature is considered. However, UTCI and AT tend to predict a lower frequency of yearly heatwave occurrences and shorter durations. Trend analysis indicates a general increase in heatwave occurrences across MSEA under all thermal indices in the past six decades, particularly in the last 30 years. This study's approach and findings provide a holistic view of heatwave characteristics based on thermal indices and highlight the risk of intensified heat stress during heatwaves in MSEA.
近几十年来,热浪对人类健康、基础设施和经济造成了重大破坏,在气候变化的影响下,全球范围内热浪的发生频率越来越高,强度越来越大。以往关于热浪的研究主要集中在气温方面,而忽略了风速、相对湿度和辐射等其他变量,这可能会严重低估热浪的不利影响。为了解决这个问题,本研究建议使用更复杂的热指数,如通用热气候指数(UTCI)和体感温度(AT)来定义热浪,并对1961年至2020年东南亚大陆(MSEA)进行全面的热浪评估。同时还比较了传统的基于温度的方法。研究结果表明,如果仅考虑气温,热浪日的年最高温度(HWA)和热浪日的年平均温度(HWM)会被严重低估。然而,UTCI和AT往往会预测每年热浪发生的频率较低,持续时间较短。趋势分析表明,在过去六十年中,在所有热指数下,MSEA地区的热浪发生次数总体呈上升趋势,尤其是在过去30年。本研究的方法和结果基于热指数提供了热浪特征的整体视图,并突出了MSEA地区热浪期间热应激加剧的风险。