Tan Zhao-Zhao, Chen Yu-Qiu, Ding Jing-Feng, Liu Meng-di, Wang Hao, Wang Jiang
Taizhou Pollution Control Technology Center Co., Ltd., Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang, China.
Taizhou University, Taizhou 318000, Zhejiang, China.
Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao. 2023 Oct;34(10):2777-2787. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202310.025.
Simulating the change of ecosystem service values (ESV) caused by land use/cover change (LUCC) in the eastern coastal cities of Zhejiang Province is of great significance for regional sustainable development and ecological security. Based on remote sensing images of land use and Statistics Yearbook of 2000, 2010, and 2020, we analyzed the influence of LUCC on ESV in the study area during 2000-2020. We used the PLUS model to simulate land use change under three scenarios, including inertial development, ecological protection, and urban development in 2030, analyzed the spatial distribution and concentration degree of ESVs based on grid scale, and clarified the sensitivity characteristics of ESVs. The results showed that the construction land area showed an increasing trend during 2000-2020. The area of forest, cultivated land and water decreased significantly, resulting in a continuous downward trend of ESVs, which decreased by 160×10 yuan. Under the simulation of three scenarios of inertial development, ecological development, and urban development, the construction land area would increase by 93624, 54927, and 111966 hm, respectively. The eastern plain would become the agglomeration area of construction land expansion. The ESVs of those three scenarios was 1693×10, 1729×10, and 1688×10 yuan, respectively, which were all lower than the ESVs of the study area in 2020. The decline rate of ESV in the ecological protection scenario slowed down. The spatial distribution of ESVs in the study area was high in the west and low in the east. Hot spots and cold spots of ESVs were distributed in a large range with strong agglomeration. Hot spots were mainly concentrated in the west, while cold spots were mainly distributed in the east and north.
模拟浙江省东部沿海城市土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）引起的生态系统服务价值（ESV）变化，对区域可持续发展和生态安全具有重要意义。基于2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用遥感影像及统计年鉴，我们分析了2000—2020年LUCC对研究区域ESV的影响。我们使用PLUS模型模拟了惯性发展、生态保护和2030年城市发展三种情景下的土地利用变化，基于网格尺度分析了ESV的空间分布和集聚程度，并阐明了ESV的敏感性特征。结果表明，2000—2020年建设用地面积呈增加趋势。森林、耕地和水域面积显著减少，导致ESV持续下降，减少了160×10元。在惯性发展、生态发展和城市发展三种情景模拟下，建设用地面积将分别增加93624、54927和111966公顷。东部平原将成为建设用地扩张的集聚区。这三种情景下的ESV分别为1693×10、1729×10和1688×10元，均低于2020年研究区域的ESV。生态保护情景下ESV的下降速率减缓。研究区域ESV的空间分布西高东低。ESV的热点和冷点分布范围广，集聚性强。热点主要集中在西部，而冷点主要分布在东部和北部。
